软商品：20260305中万期货品种策略日报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract continues to fluctuate. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and sugar mills may adjust the sugar - making ratio, with a possible decline in the 26/27 sugar - making ratio, and short - term raw sugar will maintain a fluctuating trend. In the medium term, the expected production cut risk in Brazil may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, but with high domestic inventories and ample supply, the upward space is limited and it will mainly fluctuate [5]. - For cotton, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract shows signs of recovery. The escalation of the Middle East situation brings adjustment and risk - aversion pressure after the market digests previous bullish factors, but the回调 amplitude is expected to be limited. In the long - term, with the expectation of tight supply and demand, cotton prices may still have room to rise. In the domestic market, consumption increases and last year's carry - over inventory is low, so this year's supply is expected to be tight. Policy regulation on the planting area may support cotton prices in the long - term. It is advisable to consider buying on dips recently [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of sugar 2609, 2605, and 2603 were 5321, 5308, and 5275 respectively, with price drops of - 11, - 13, and - 15 and percentage drops of - 0.21%, - 0.24%, and - 0.28% respectively. For 11 - number sugar 2610, 2607, and 2605, the previous day's closing prices were 14.11, 13.76, and 14.11 respectively, with price drops of - 0.14, - 0.17, and - 0.14 and percentage drops of - 0.98%, - 1.22%, and - 0.98% respectively [2]. - Positions and Trading Volumes: The positions of sugar 2609, 2605, and 2603 were 152115, 446413, and 1749 respectively, and the trading volumes were 55537, 305235, and 123 respectively. For 11 - number sugar 2610, 2607, and 2605, the positions were 145715, 201926, and 145715 respectively, and the trading volumes were 28919, 58171, and 28919 respectively [2]. - Price Ratios and Spreads: The current values of SR2605 - SR2603, SR2609 - SR2603, and SR2605 - SR2609 were 33, - 46, and - 13 respectively, compared with previous values of 31, - 42, and - 11. For 11 - number sugar, the current values of 2610 - 2607, 2607 - 2605, and 2610 - 2605 were 0.35, - 0.35, and 0.00 respectively, compared with previous values of 0.32, - 0.32, and 0.00 [2]. Sugar Spot Market - Spot Prices: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming were 5390 and 5215 respectively, with no change from the previous value in Liuzhou and an increase of 15 in Kunming [2]. - Basis: The current basis values in Liuzhou and Kunming for SR2509 were 115 and - 60 respectively, compared with previous values of 100 and - 90. For the new basis values, they were 82 and - 93 respectively, compared with previous values of 69 and - 121 [2]. - Import Prices: The current import prices of Brazilian sugar within the quota and outside the quota were 3331 and 4239 respectively, and for Thai sugar, they were 3847 and 4912 respectively. The differences between the futures price and Thai sugar were 1461 and 396 respectively, compared with previous values of 1443 and 369 [2]. Sugar Inventory and Positions - Inventory: The current warehouse receipt quantity of white sugar was 14585, the effective forecast was 2585, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17170, compared with previous values of 14461, 1689, and 16150 respectively [2]. - Non - commercial Positions: The current non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar were 183446 and 429569 respectively, with a long - to - short ratio of 0.43, compared with previous values of 171981, 425573, and 0.40 respectively [2]. Industry Information - Guangxi Sugar Production: Affected by factors such as increased sugarcane planting area, favorable weather with abundant rainfall, and improved field management, the sugarcane yield per unit and the amount of sugarcane crushed in Guangxi have recovered. The estimated range of sugarcane crushed in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi is adjusted to 5750 - 5850 million tons (an upward revision of 215 - 250 million tons), the sugar - making rate is slightly adjusted to 12.3% - 12.4% (a downward revision of 0.1%), and the total sugar production is adjusted to 710 - 722 million tons (an upward revision of 22 - 30 million tons) [3]. - Yunnan Sugar Production: The 2025/2026 sugar - making season in Yunnan started on October 30, 2025, one day later than the previous season. As of February 28, 2026, 52 sugar mills were in operation (the same as the previous year). The amount of sugarcane crushed was 1201.82 million tons (compared with 1098.47 million tons in the same period of the previous season), sugar production was 149.34 million tons (compared with 140.03 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 12.43% (compared with 12.75% in the same period of the previous season), and alcohol production was 1.95 million tons (compared with 1.46 million tons in the same period of the previous season). The cumulative sales of new sugar were 69.75 million tons (compared with 72.25 million tons in the same period of the previous year), the sales rate was 46.71% (compared with 51.60% in the same period of the previous year). The monthly sugar production was 50.93 million tons (a decrease of 5.39 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year), monthly sugar sales were 16.54 million tons (a decrease of 10.48 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year), and the industrial inventory was 79.58 million tons (an increase of 11.80 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year). Alcohol sales were 1.64 million tons (compared with 1.45 million tons in the same period of the previous year) [4]. - US Sugar Subsidies: The US Department of Agriculture will provide $150 million in one - time financial assistance to sugar beet and sugarcane growers to help them cope with market fluctuations and rising production and processing costs. This assistance is a supplement to the previously announced Farmer Bridge Assistance Program and the Specialty Crop Grower Assistance Program [5].