山金期货黑色板块日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production, low demand, and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, indicating strong support below. Due to the current low valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - The iron ore market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price has rebounded rapidly, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, the total inventory continued to rise, the total production of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at a low level for the year [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price oscillates at a low level, indicating strong support below [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - Data Summary: - Price: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different degrees of decline [2]. - Production: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the production of electric - arc - furnace steel mills' rebar increased [2]. - Inventory: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major varieties and rebar and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand of the five major varieties, rebar, and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - Data Summary: - Price: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different degrees of changes [4]. - Supply: The shipping volume of Australian iron ore decreased, while that of Brazilian iron ore increased. The arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased [4]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production increased, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [4]. 3.3 Industry Information - The PMI of the steel industry in February 2026 was 46.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points, indicating that the operation of the steel industry slowed down in the short term due to the Spring Festival holiday. The supply and demand at both ends of steel contracted, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the prices of raw materials and steel were weak [7]. - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai regions lowered the prices of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on March 6, 2026 [8]. - As of the week ending March 4, the national building materials production increased, the total inventory increased, the national hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the total inventory increased [8].