中泰期货晨会纪要-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, focus on risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [11][13]. - For steel, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For iron ore, short - term high - level short positions can take profits, and long - term partial short positions can be held lightly. For double - coking, the price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines, downstream demand recovery, and international crude oil price fluctuations after the Spring Festival [15][16][18]. - For various non - ferrous metals and new materials, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, zinc is recommended to maintain a bearish view, and lead is recommended to hold short positions [24][27]. - For agricultural products, different varieties also have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to enter a volatile stage, sugar is recommended to be operated with a volatile mindset, and eggs are expected to have a limited increase in price in March [34][35][36]. - For energy and chemical products, the short - term trading of crude oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the price of fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation after continuous daily limit increases. Different chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol also have their own characteristics and trends [42][44][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to March 12th. The State Council Premier Li Qiang will deliver the "Government Work Report", and relevant personnel will interpret it [6]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer. The US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation [6]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US may officially adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week. The US will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [7]. - The South Korean stock market fell sharply, and the financial regulatory agency will start a 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if market fluctuations intensify [7]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [7]. - NVIDIA's CEO said that the company's $30 billion investment in OpenAI may be its last investment before the company goes public, and OpenAI is expected to start an IPO by the end of the year. The $10 billion investment in Anthropic may also be the last [8]. - Mediterranean Shipping Company will unload all goods bound for ports in the Gulf region at the nearest safe port and charge a mandatory surcharge of $800 per container. Maersk will temporarily stop accepting cargo bookings to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia [8]. - US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four - year term [8]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025. The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and the PPI showed different changes [9]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98% to 4082.47 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.41%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 0.69%. The market traded 2.39 trillion yuan throughout the day. The market's focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the oil and gas sector's volatility increased. The semiconductor sentiment weakened due to the sharp decline in the South Korean stock market [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline. The official PMI was affected by seasonality and was weak, while the Hong Kong ratingdogPMI was strong. The continuous sharp rise in crude oil prices pushed up the bond market due to market risk - aversion sentiment [13]. Black Steel - The current order - receiving situation of steel is acceptable, but the inventory is high, especially for coils, which suppresses steel prices. The real - estate sales and new construction data are weak, and infrastructure projects have not started much. The downstream consumption of coils is acceptable, and the export and steel mills' orders are good. The supply side has low - level profits, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal fluctuates, and the overall steel price is expected to fluctuate. The recommended strategies include selling wide - straddle options and holding, taking profits on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term, and holding partial short positions in the long term [15][16]. Coal and Coke - The price of double - coking may fluctuate in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the supply of coal mines has recovered, and the demand from steel mills will increase. However, the recovery of terminal steel demand is uncertain, and there is still an expectation of price cuts for coke. The rise in international crude oil prices may support the price of double - coking [18]. Iron Alloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The current price is at a stage high, and there are negative impacts such as hedging pressure and production resumption pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions and try short positions at high prices [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The new production capacity of leading enterprises has made progress. For glass, the upstream price has loosened, and there are both cold - repair and ignition plans on the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see at present [22]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and Kevin Warsh may promote balance - sheet reduction, which will put pressure on copper prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long term, the global copper - mine supply is tight, which will support the copper - price center [24]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and treat it with a volatile mindset [24]. Lead - The consumption of lead is gradually recovering, and the supply recovery is slower than the consumption end. It is recommended to hold short positions [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The short - term supply increases, and the demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is valued at a relatively low level, and previous long positions can be held. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][32]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to enter a volatile stage. The global cotton output is expected to decline, and the demand remains stable. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the actual consumption and orders of textile enterprises are the key to the market [34]. Sugar - The global sugar market has a supply surplus, but the surplus has been adjusted. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and there is a replenishment demand after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to operate with a volatile mindset [35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs may stabilize, and there is an expectation of price increase in March, but the increase space is limited. The futures contracts in the second quarter are supported by the expectation of spot - price increase, but the premium over the spot is large, and the upside pressure is large [36]. Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly. The prices of high - quality products in the western region are rising, while those in the Shandong region are stable [38]. Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn price is strong in the spot market and fluctuates in the futures market. There is a certain stage pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [39]. Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The consumption after the Spring Festival is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales areas and the mentality of purchasers [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still impassable, and the domestic crude - oil price continues to rise sharply. Geopolitical factors are the main trading line in the short term. The conflict between the US and Iran has a great impact on global crude - oil supply. The oil - price premium is relatively high, and the increase range is limited if there is no extreme conflict [42]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of oil prices on fuel oil under the influence of geopolitics. After continuous daily limit increases, it is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. The supply risk has not been eliminated [44]. Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the price of polyolefins. It is recommended to beware of the rebound risk and adopt a bullish mindset [45]. Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between RU - NR and RU - BR [46]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to go long on dips, but be cautious about the rapid decline of energy prices and high inventory. Partially take profits on the strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [48]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, which may affect the supply of Iranian methanol. It is recommended to adopt a bullish - volatile mindset, but beware of the callback caused by the shutdown of downstream MTO factories [49]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate widely. The spot price is relatively weak, and the futures price has insufficient upward drive and relatively high valuation [50]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. Pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [51]. PVC - The short - term PVC may be bullish - volatile. The increase in oil prices will raise the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and adopt a range - volatile mindset [52][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment, and it is expected to continue to run strongly. Pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the long term [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The supply of LPG is abundant in the future, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation increases volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Pulp - The market is in a multi - empty game. The high inventory pressure and the forced production cuts of overseas pulp mills are the focus. Pay attention to the port inventory and the implementation of product price increases [57]. Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under the support of the cost. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the commodity and macro - sentiment [58]. Urea - The futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to lay out short positions when the price rises [59].