每日投资策略-20260305

Macro Commentary - In February, China's manufacturing PMI weakened significantly due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with both new orders and export indices hitting new lows. Despite this, raw material and factory prices continued to expand, indicating ongoing re-inflation. The non-manufacturing PMI also contracted as construction sites largely halted during the holiday [2] - The National People's Congress is expected to maintain the broad fiscal deficit at around 8% of GDP for 2026, which includes a general budget deficit of CNY 5.9 trillion (4% of GDP) and various special bonds. The GDP growth target for 2026 may be adjusted down to a range of 4.5%-5% [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,249, down 2.01% for the day and down 1.49% year-to-date. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.96%, down 12.45% year-to-date [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.98%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.53%. The US markets showed a rebound, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.29% [4] Industry Commentary Aluminum Industry - Qatar's Qatalum announced a controlled shutdown of aluminum production starting March 3 due to local natural gas supply constraints. The shutdown is expected to last until the end of March, with full production resumption potentially taking 6 to 12 months [5] - Qatalum has an annual rated capacity of 648,000 tons, contributing approximately 0.9% to global aluminum production. The shutdown, combined with uncertainties surrounding Iran's 620,000 tons of capacity, is expected to exacerbate supply tightness in 2026, leading to a projected 15% year-on-year increase in aluminum prices [6] - Chinese aluminum producers are viewed as good hedges against risks from the Iranian crisis, with a "buy" rating reiterated for China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and Innovation Industry (2788 HK) [6] Internet/Semiconductor Industry - The performance of leading TMT companies in Q4 2025 indicates that AI continues to drive growth in internet companies, with cloud service revenues growing by 30% year-on-year. This trend is expected to support semiconductor companies' performance outlook [6] - Major internet and cloud firms are raising their capital expenditure forecasts for FY26, which may lead to concerns about investment efficiency amidst high industry valuations. The semiconductor sector is expected to outperform the software sector in the short term [6] - Companies like Microsoft, Meta, Datadog, Amazon, and Google are recommended for their potential to benefit from the generative AI era and drive revenue growth [6]