格林大华期货早盘提示：钢矿-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the short term. For rebar, the support level is 3000 and the resistance level is 3100. For hot-rolled coil, the support level is 3180 and the resistance level is 3300. For iron ore, the support level is 730 and the resistance level is 770. Unilateral trading suggests short-term operations or waiting for opportunities and setting stop-losses. In terms of arbitrage, considering the closing price, the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar has converged to 141. It is recommended to go long on hot-rolled coil and short on rebar and enter the market at a low price, with a suggested take-profit level of over 200 [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and iron ore closed higher, while hot-rolled coil closed flat. All closed higher during the night session [1]. Important Information - At the first press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 4, spokesperson Lou Qinjian stated that this year, China will adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, boost consumption, formulate laws such as the law on childcare services, and the Party and the state's basic policies to promote the development of the private economy will not change. The central government will introduce more policies to benefit Hong Kong. Sino-US relations should be based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. China-EU economic and trade relations are complementary in nature, and cooperation with China is beneficial to Europe's economic development. China is highly concerned about the situation in Iran and calls for an immediate halt to military operations and the resumption of dialogue and negotiation to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East [1]. - In February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will succeed the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four-year term [1]. Market Logic - According to the arrangements during the Two Sessions, most steel mills in Tangshan have planned to reduce blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30%-50%. Some steel mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, with most maintenance durations being 5 - 7 days. It is expected that the blast furnace hot metal in the Tangshan market will decline in early March and recover in the middle of the month, with a relatively limited overall impact. Last week, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coil both decreased, inventory continued to rise, and apparent demand decreased, which was in line with expectations. Research shows that the resumption progress of manufacturing enterprises is basically the same as that of the same period last year, but the divergence in future demand expectations has increased, and the willingness to actively increase production, stockpile goods, and prepare raw materials has slightly decreased. According to Lange data, in terms of production, the production of building materials increased slightly this week, with the increase mainly coming from electric furnaces. Affected by the maintenance of some steel mills, the production of industrial materials changed from an increase to a decrease. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of building materials continued to accumulate, with the increase in social inventory being greater than that in factory inventory. The inventory growth rate of industrial materials slowed down, with factory inventory changing from an increase to a decrease and social inventory continuing to rise. Overall, as downstream enterprises gradually resume work, the apparent demand for building materials and industrial materials has increased month-on-month. Year-on-year, the current inventory pressure is higher than that of the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation and inventory accumulation progress after the Lantern Festival [1]. - From February 23 to March 1, the total global iron ore shipments were 33.407 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 198,000 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.907 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,000 tons. From February 23 to March 1, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 22.3 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total iron ore arrivals at 45 ports in China were 21.469 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 55,000 tons. Last week, the daily hot metal output was 2.3328 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 28,000 tons [1][2]. Trading Strategies - It is expected to be mainly in a volatile state in the short term. The support and resistance levels for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are provided respectively. Unilateral trading suggests short-term operations or waiting for opportunities and setting stop-losses. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot-rolled coil and short on rebar and enter the market at a low price, with a suggested take-profit level of over 200 [2].