美伊局势仍然严峻，铂钯震荡运

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 4, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 4.55% to 563.50 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract fell 2.78% to 433.80 yuan/gram [1] - The platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar's credit. The palladium price is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, with spot shortages and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Price: On March 4, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 4.55% to 563.50 yuan/gram [1] - Main Logic: The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, has increased global energy transportation costs and oil prices. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it may lead to global inflation, delayed Fed rate cuts, and increased economic recession risks. The short - term safe - haven sentiment supports the platinum price. In the long run, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar index, which is beneficial to the release of platinum price elasticity [2] - Outlook: Volatile and bullish [2] Palladium - Price: On March 4, 2026, the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 2.78% to 433.80 yuan/gram [1] - Main Logic: There is continued uncertainty on the supply side. The US has imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The supply disruption supports the price. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, with short - term supply disruptions, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - Outlook: Volatile and bullish [3] Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: No specific data provided - Special Index: The commodity index was 2484.31, up 0.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2838.28, down 0.33%; the industrial products index was 2398.32, up 1.42% [50] Plate Index - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 4, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2699.72. The daily decline was 0.64%, the decline in the past 5 days was 0.71%, the decline in the past month was 5.23%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 0.51% [52]