外汇头寸用于缴准的可行性探讨

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Views - The central bank's decision on February 27, 2026, to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0 is a counter - cyclical adjustment in the context of the RMB's phased strengthening, aiming to ease the amplifying effect of unilateral appreciation expectations on foreign exchange supply and demand [1][9] - There is a large amount of foreign exchange position precipitation in the banking system, and activating these positions and broadening the uses of foreign exchange funds is necessary to improve the efficiency of capital use in the banking system [2][23] - The historical practice of allowing banks to pay RMB deposit reserves with foreign exchange in 2007 achieved structural optimization of the source of reserve - paying assets. In the current context, restarting the "foreign exchange reserve payment" mechanism may have effects similar to a "reserve ratio cut", bring liquidity easing to large banks, and indirectly adjust the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [3][27][28] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Central Bank Lowers Foreign Exchange Reserve Ratio to Counter RMB's Strong Rise - On March 2, 2026, the central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0, aiming to lower the cost of forward foreign exchange purchases, improve the efficiency of enterprises' hedging, and ease unilateral appreciation expectations [9] - The RMB's strengthening is related to the high record of recent foreign exchange settlement and sales data. From November to December 2025, the net foreign exchange settlement in RMB increased significantly, and in January 2026, it remained at a high level. The increase in foreign exchange reserves was significantly smaller than the impact of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales, indicating that the central bank did not conduct large - scale foreign exchange settlement and sales operations with commercial banks [11][12] 2. Evolution of the Central Bank's Foreign Exchange Policy and the Bank's Foreign Currency Position Management Model 2.1 Central Bank's Foreign Exchange Policy Changes and Management Tools - After the "811 Exchange Rate Reform", the foreign exchange regulation framework shifted from direct central bank intervention to indirect regulation and risk management using tools. The central bank uses various tools such as adjusting the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio and the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio to guide market entities to manage exchange rate risks [14] - The main foreign exchange regulation tools include the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio, the financial institution foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio, and the cross - border financing macro - prudential adjustment parameter, each with different functions and current levels [15] 2.2 T - Account Perspective on Banks' Handling of Foreign Exchange Positions in Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Business - The difference in foreign exchange settlement and sales creates foreign exchange exposure. Banks need to consider spot flattening, forward foreign exchange, swap operations, or option processing based on the term structure and RMB capital gap. The T - account is used to understand the impact of these operations on liquidity [16] - Different foreign exchange business operations have different T - account entries. For example, spot agency foreign exchange settlement involves debiting foreign currency funds and crediting RMB funds, while forward foreign exchange settlement and sales first confirm derivative financial instruments at the signing date [16] - Currently, due to the complex external situation and large net foreign exchange settlement, a significant amount of foreign exchange funds remain in the banking system, limiting the efficiency of banks' use of domestic and foreign currency funds [19] - Banks have various uses for foreign currency funds, including paying foreign currency deposit reserves, allocating to highly liquid assets, investing in foreign currency loans and bonds, and engaging in inter - bank foreign currency lending. However, the current situation shows that there is a need to activate foreign exchange positions [22][23] 3. Feasibility Study of Using Foreign Exchange Positions for Reserve Payment during the Peak of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - Currently, there is a large amount of foreign exchange position precipitation in banks, while RMB liquidity is relatively tight. The weighted legal deposit reserve ratio is close to the 5% lower limit, making it difficult to lower [26] - In 2007, the central bank required some large - scale banks to pay the newly increased RMB legal deposit reserves with foreign exchange funds, which optimized the source of reserve - paying assets and maintained the stability of the RMB asset market [27] - In the current context, restarting the "foreign exchange reserve payment" mechanism may have effects similar to a "reserve ratio cut", bring liquidity easing to large banks, and indirectly adjust the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [28]