黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is currently in a situation where the industry trend is downward but the macro - environment is upward. The domestic coking coal market faces dual pressures of total supply and structural demand, but factors like the continuation of the global commodity cycle, geopolitical conflicts, and the rise of resource nationalism will support coal prices, and the rhythm needs to be grasped. Coking coal prices are expected to have limited downward movement in the short - term. [4] - Coking coal prices are expected to have limited downward movement in the short - term. For JM2605, the support level is around 1050 - 1060 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is around 1160 - 1170 yuan/ton [4]. - Coke has started the first round of price reduction, which is expected to be implemented on Friday. Along with the weakening of coking coal, the coke futures price has followed the downward trend. The overall energy attribute of coking coal and coke has increased, mainly affecting the sentiment rather than the fundamentals. If oil prices remain high, it will also support coal as a whole. In the future, the coke supply side will face stronger constraints, the pressure to eliminate low - end production capacity will increase, and coking profit is expected to continue to improve [5]. - Coke is under short - term pressure, but the downward space is expected to be limited. Hedging orders can be held, and speculative strategies can consider buying on dips. For the 05 contract, the short - term support level is around 1600 - 1650 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure level is around 1850 - 1900 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions 3.1.1 Trading Strategies - Coking coal: Consider buying on dips near the support level. The support for JM2605 is in the range of 1050 - 1060 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is in the range of 1250 - 1260 yuan/ton, due to the support from factors such as the global commodity cycle, geopolitical conflicts, and resource nationalism [8]. - Coke: Consider buying on dips near the support level. The support for the 05 contract is in the range of 1600 - 1650 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is in the range of 1850 - 1900 yuan/ton, as the future supply side will face stronger constraints and coking profit is expected to improve [8]. 3.1.2 Domestic Prices - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating downward. The J2605 contract closed at 1672.00 yuan, a decrease of 22.00 yuan compared to the previous period; the JM2605 contract closed at 1097.00 yuan, a decrease of 30.00 yuan compared to the previous period [8]. - Domestic Spot: The price of Tangshan Grade - 1 coke is 1660 yuan/ton, with no daily change; Grade - 2 coke is 1635 yuan/ton, with no daily change; Rizhao quasi - Grade - 1 coke is 1350 yuan/ton, with no daily change; Rizhao Grade - 1 coke is 1450 yuan/ton, with no daily change; Luliang medium - sulfur main coking coal is 1060 yuan/ton, with no daily change; Anze low - sulfur main coking coal is 1310 yuan/ton, with no daily change [9]. - Active Contract Daily Transaction Data: The closing price of coke is 1672.0 yuan, the highest price is 1699.0 yuan, the lowest price is 1655.0 yuan, the settlement price is 1677.5 yuan, the increase/decrease rate is 0.66%, the trading volume is 18,829, the settlement price is 1677.5 yuan, the open interest is 37,091, and the change in open interest is - 2103. The closing price of coking coal is 1097.0 yuan, the highest price is 1133.0 yuan, the lowest price is 1087.5 yuan, the settlement price is 1109.5 yuan, the increase/decrease rate is - 0.23%, the trading volume is 989,346, the settlement price is 1109.5 yuan, the open interest is 505,033, and the change in open interest is - 1209 [11]. 3.1.3 Import Prices - Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is 1029.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 24.00 yuan/ton; Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal is 1200.00 yuan/ton, with no daily change. - Peak Downs (CFR) is 239.00 US dollars/ton, with no daily change; Peak Downs North (CFR) is 238.00 US dollars/ton, with no daily change; Russia (CFR) is 161.00 US dollars/ton, with no daily change; Canada (CFR) is 315.00 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 2.00 US dollars/ton. [12][13] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants nationwide is 63.01%, with an increase/decrease of 1.11% compared to the previous period; the daily output of cleaned coal is 53.44 tons, with an increase/decrease of 1.34 tons. - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants is 75.27%, with an increase/decrease of 1.86% compared to the previous period; the daily output is 53.66 tons, with an increase/decrease of 1.21 tons. The daily output of independent coking plants is 64.29 tons, with an increase/decrease of 0.55 tons; the daily output of 247 steel mills is 47.10 tons, with an increase/decrease of - 0.13 tons. [15] 3.2.2 Inventory - The coking coal inventory at six ports is 271.97 tons, with an increase/decrease of 13.56 tons compared to the previous period; the coking coal inventory of coking plants is 998.86 tons, with an increase/decrease of - 80.23 tons; the coking coal inventory of steel mills is 792.46 tons, with an increase/decrease of - 27.89 tons. - The coke inventory at four ports is 197.10 tons, with an increase/decrease of - 1.96 tons; the coke inventory of coking plants is 107.82 tons, with an increase/decrease of 7.54 tons; the coke inventory of steel mills is 675.11 tons, with an increase/decrease of - 13.50 tons. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Spread - The content mainly presents various spread charts of coking coal and coke, including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and the ratio of coke to iron ore, coke to rebar at different contract months, but no specific spread data is provided [23][26].