贵金属数据日报-20260305

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term energy prices remaining high may subject the precious metals market to inflation - risk trading, but due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, precious metal prices are supported and will maintain high volatility [5] - In the long run, the logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 4, 2026, London gold spot was $5164.14 per ounce, London silver spot was $84.93 per ounce, COMEX gold was $5174.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $85.05 per ounce. Compared with March 3, gold prices dropped by 2.7% and silver prices decreased by 0.2% [3] - The price of the AU2604 gold futures contract was 1153.06 yuan per gram, and the AG2604 silver futures contract was 21854 yuan per kilogram on March 4, 2026, with a change of - 2.4% and 1.0% respectively compared to March 3 [3] - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver in different markets also showed certain changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 21.8% from March 3 to March 4 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 3, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1099.04 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15981.38274 tons. Compared with March 2, the changes were - 0.21% and 0.50% respectively [3] - COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 211649 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52472 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 159177 contracts on March 3, 2026, with corresponding changes compared to March 2 [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 4, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105033.00 kilograms, a - 0.03% change from March 3. The SHFE silver inventory was 294823.00 kilograms, a - 4.12% change from March 3 [3] - On March 3, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 33071598 troy ounces, a - 0.30% change from March 2, and the COMEX silver inventory was 355173837 troy ounces, a - 0.67% change from March 2 [3] 4. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On March 4, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.91, with a 0.05% change from March 3 [3] - On March 3, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.06, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, the VIX was 23.57, the S&P 500 was 6816.63, and NYMEX crude oil was $74.80. Compared with March 2, the changes were 0.52%, 1.15%, 0.25%, 9.93%, - 0.94%, and 5.31% respectively [3] 5. Market Review - On March 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.1% to 1153.06 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.43% to 21854 yuan per kilogram [3] 6. Impact Analysis - The US Treasury Secretary said the crude oil market supply is sufficient, and the US will provide insurance for ships in the Gulf region, causing crude oil prices to fall and easing inflation concerns. The weakening of the US dollar index led to a rebound in precious metal prices after hitting the bottom [4] - Geopolitical conflicts are ongoing. The US Defense Secretary said the US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned that a 158% tariff rate may take effect this week, which continues to support precious metal prices [4] - The increase of 63,000 in the US ADP employment in February, the largest increase since July last year, eases the risk of economic recession. The inconsistent hawkish stances of Fed officials also suppress precious metal prices to some extent [4] - For silver, although the inventory and position risks in September have been greatly alleviated, the SHFE inventory has fallen below 300 tons, and the New York inventory is still declining. The physical tight - supply structure has not been fully alleviated, so the fundamentals still support silver prices [4]