聚酯数据日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA: Crude oil is expected to strengthen significantly due to geopolitical impacts. Asian PX market speculative sentiment has rebounded, but physical supply remains stable. Although some PTA devices are scheduled for maintenance in March, PX physical supply is sufficient. Market demand is calm, downstream replenishment is not active, and polyester operating load is lower than expected. However, from March to May, the market anticipates a tightening of PX supply due to refinery maintenance and planned closures in South Korea. Middle - East geopolitical tensions may bring short - term energy price volatility risks [2] - Ethylene glycol: The Middle - East situation is tense, and the market is chaotic. The production profit margin of naphtha cracking has declined, and naphtha demand remains weak. The spread between ethylene and naphtha has shrunk. Some ethylene producers in South Korea maintained their cracking unit operating rates in February. A large - scale ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu switched a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene, and the ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Iranian situation on prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Crude oil: INE crude oil price increased from 572.3 yuan/barrel on March 3, 2026, to 641.1 yuan/barrel on March 4, 2026, with a change of 68.80 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA: PTA - SC decreased from 1449.0 yuan/ton to 1035.1 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3484 to 1.2222; PTA主力期价 increased from 5608 yuan/ton to 5694 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 5525 yuan/ton to 5605 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 increased from 230.1 yuan/ton to 240.6 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 increased from 293.1 yuan/ton to 334.6 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from (53) to (46); PTA仓单数量 increased from 124720 to 125948 [2] - MEG: MEG主力期价 increased from 4025 yuan/ton to 4078 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (253.17) yuan/ton to (252.36) yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased from 3894 yuan/ton to 4046 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from - 65 to - 60 [2] - PX: CFR中国PX increased from 1019 to 1027; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 304 to 290 [2] - Polyester products: POY150D/48F increased from 7365 to 7425; POY现金流 decreased from 87 to 27; FDY150D/96F increased from 7530 to 7625; FDY现金流 decreased from (248) to (273); DTY150D/48F increased from 8445 to 8535; DTY现金流 decreased from (33) to (63); 长丝产销 decreased from 58% to 48%; 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 7005 to 7070; 涤短现金流 decreased from 77 to 22; 短纤产销 decreased from 96% to 59%; 半光切片 increased from 6225 to 6270; 切片现金流 decreased from (153) to (228); 切片产销 decreased from 88% to 31% [2] 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 88.08% [2] - PTA开工率 increased from 77.95% to 79.81% [2] - MEG开工率 remained at 59.01% [2] - 聚酯负荷 increased from 79.46% to 80.39% [2] 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was shut down for maintenance around February 10, has returned to normal operation [2] - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was operating at 50% capacity, has returned to normal operation [2] - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China, which was under maintenance in mid - January, has returned to normal operation [2]