市场快讯：棉花保持偏多思路

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton futures prices rose last night, and there is still upward momentum for Zhengzhou cotton futures [3] - The supply-side is driven by policy-driven reduction, with the target for cotton planting area set at around 36 million mu, a reduction of 5-7 million mu (over 10%) compared to 2025. The market is closely watching the implementation of the policy, and climate fluctuations during the planting season may also be potential factors driving up futures prices [3] - The demand-side relies on capacity expansion to release steady rigid demand. As of the end of 2024, the total number of spindles in Xinjiang reached 29.1 million, and after an increase of about 10 million in 2025, the total scale will exceed 39 million. The industry predicts that the capacity is expected to exceed 40 million spindles in the next two years and may climb to around 45 million spindles three years later. As of February 12, the national cotton sales rate reached 67.4%, a year-on-year increase of 21 percentage points and 25.5 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The current inventory is in a healthy range, and the market maintains a tight balance expectation [3] - In terms of terminal consumption, domestic sales show a clear upward trend and export expectations are positive, but the overall profit margin of the cotton spinning industry is narrow, and the ability to bear cost increases is limited. Although there is demand resilience, the upward support is insufficient. The market still needs to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction caused by lower-than-expected downstream resumption of work and the widening of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton [3] - Operational suggestion: Hold long positions for the 05 contract below 15,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Supply Side - Policy-driven reduction in cotton planting area to around 36 million mu, a reduction of 5-7 million mu (over 10%) compared to 2025 [3] - Market closely watching policy implementation and potential impact of climate fluctuations during planting season [3] - Demand Side - Capacity expansion in the cotton spinning industry, with the total number of spindles in Xinjiang expected to exceed 40 million in the next two years and around 45 million three years later [3] - High cotton sales rate, with the national cotton sales rate reaching 67.4% as of February 12, a year-on-year increase of 21 percentage points and 25.5 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [3] - Current inventory in a healthy range, market maintaining a tight balance expectation [3] - Terminal Consumption - Clear upward trend in domestic sales and positive export expectations [3] - Narrow profit margin in the cotton spinning industry, limited ability to bear cost increases [3] - Need to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction caused by lower-than-expected downstream resumption of work and the widening of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton [3] - Operational Suggestion - Hold long positions for the 05 contract below 15,300 yuan/ton [3]