近端供应缩减预期下，EG月差偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on the unilateral investment in ethylene glycol (EG) [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic EG plants have reduced their production preventively, resulting in a loss of 900 - 1000 tons of EG production per day. With the expectation of reduced near - term supply, the EG month - spread is strong [2]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that the domestic EG production load is at a high level, and there are concerns about further expansion of the impact of plant production cuts. Overseas supply may be further reduced due to the situation in Iran. On the demand side, post - holiday demand is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and textile and clothing export orders after the reduction of nominal tariffs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4078 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton, +1.32% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3974 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton, +1.17% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was - 52 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 787 yuan/ton (up 178 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. International Price Difference - The report mentions the international price difference of EG (US FOB - China CFR), but no specific data is provided [21]. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The report does not provide specific data on downstream sales and operating rates, but only lists relevant figures such as long - filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, etc. [22][25][29]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.002 million tons (up 20,000 tons month - on - month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 108,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 16,000 tons. It is expected that the main port inventory will remain stable [2].