2026年2月PMI点评：制造业PMI季节性回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The manufacturing PMI declined seasonally in February, while the non - manufacturing PMI expanded but remained below the boom - bust line. The comprehensive PMI output index also decreased, indicating a slowdown in overall business production and operation activities [2] - In 2026, the economy is expected to grow steadily. However, the policy support for consumption may decline compared to 2025, and the drag from infrastructure and real estate investment may continue. There may be pressure on foreign trade in Q1 2026, and the PPI year - on - year decline may narrow [2] - Long - term bond adjustment may present an opportunity. If the risk appetite drops unexpectedly, long - term bond yields may decline significantly. The report predicts the lows of 10Y and 30Y bond yields in different quarters and suggests paying attention to 30Y old treasury bonds, 10Y state - owned development bonds, and long - duration capital bonds [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Manufacturing PMI - In February, the manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 49.0% compared to the previous month, mainly affected by the Spring Festival. The impact of the Spring Festival this year was weaker than in previous years [2] - The production and new order indices of the manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.0 pct and 0.6 pct respectively. The price indicators were under pressure, with the raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index showing changes. The PMI of medium - sized and small - sized enterprises was more affected by the Spring Festival shutdown [2] - The new export order index in February was 45.0%, the lowest since May 2025, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.8 pct. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries declined [2] Non - manufacturing PMI - The non - manufacturing business activity index in February was 49.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct, indicating an overall improvement in the non - manufacturing business climate [2] - The construction business activity index decreased to 48.2% in February, a decrease of 0.6 pct from the previous month, possibly affected by the Spring Festival suspension of construction. The service business activity index increased by 0.2 pct to 49.7%, and some service industries were in a high - level boom range during the Spring Festival [2]