Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for RiboBio-B (06938) as a first-time coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - RiboBio focuses on the development and industrialization of small nucleic acid drugs, being one of the pioneers in this field. The company has established a fully integrated research and development platform for small nucleic acid drugs, covering various chronic diseases such as cardiovascular, metabolic, kidney, and liver diseases [5][17]. - The small nucleic acid drug industry is entering a period of explosive growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.4% from 2024 to 2029, driven by advancements in delivery technology and the expansion of indications from rare diseases to chronic diseases [27][28]. - RiboBio's differentiated pipeline includes RBD4059, which targets FXI for thrombotic diseases, RBD5044 for dyslipidemia, and RBD1016 for hepatitis B functional cure, showcasing the company's potential to meet unmet clinical needs [32][46]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 143 million in 2024, with a projected growth to RMB 350 million in 2026 and 2027. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be -RMB 270 million in 2024, improving to -RMB 133 million in 2026 [6][8]. - The target price for RiboBio is set at RMB 76.24, equivalent to HKD 86.08, indicating a potential upside of 46% from the market capitalization as of March 4, 2026 [7][8]. Pipeline and Market Opportunities - RiboBio has a robust pipeline with over 20 preclinical drugs and 7 clinical drugs, including 4 in Phase II trials. The core pipeline targets chronic diseases, addressing significant unmet clinical needs [30][31]. - RBD4059 is positioned as the world's first clinical-stage siRNA drug for thrombotic diseases, with a significant market potential as the global anti-thrombotic market is expected to reach USD 59.3 billion by 2024 [32][33]. - RBD5044 aims to address the unmet needs in the dyslipidemia market, which is projected to grow from USD 24 billion in 2019 to USD 35.3 billion by 2029 [46][49]. Key Assumptions and Catalysts - The revenue for 2025-2027 is primarily expected to come from business development (BD) licensing income, with significant milestone payments anticipated from collaborations with partners like Boehringer Ingelheim and Qilu Pharmaceutical [8][9]. - Key clinical data releases for RBD4059, RBD5044, and RBD1016, as well as new licensing agreements with overseas companies, are expected to act as catalysts for stock price performance [10].
瑞博生物-B（06938）：平台筑壁垒，管线创未来