股债跷跷板延续，国债期货大多收涨

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and there were uncertainties in foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global geopolitical uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the monthly PPI rose 0.40% month - on - month and decreased 1.40% year - on - year [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: The social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan (+1.58%); M2 year - on - year growth was 9.00%, up 0.50% (+5.88%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.30% (-0.61%) [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US Dollar Index was 98.80, down 0.26 (-0.26%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8934, down 0.032 (-0.47%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.28%); DR007 was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.25%); R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 (-6.95%); the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.53, down 0.01 (-0.49%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09 [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the settled funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, and the long - short position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety [13][14][16]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report shows charts such as the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [26][27][24]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - product spreads of futures [33][35][37]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [45][47]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][56]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][66]. 4. Strategies - Single - side Strategy: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].