马士基3月下半月调涨400美金，主力04合约获得估值指引

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery, and it is recommended that investors closely follow the spot market, operate flexibly, and consider the profit - loss ratio. The price of Maersk increased by $400 in the second half of March, providing a valuation guide for the main 04 contract [1][6]. - Contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August are expected to be strong in the short - term. The EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts may have relatively strong short - term trends, but investors need to respond flexibly as the actual freight rates in future months are still uncertain [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 4, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 78,886.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 225,015.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1909.50, 2110.60, 2228.90, 2350.00, 2241.00, 1683.60, 1504.00, and 1862.90 respectively [9]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes: For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in WEEK11 and WEEK12 were 1185/1890 and 1385/2210 respectively; HPL's shipping quotes in the second half of March and the first half of April were 2605/4535 and 2985/5035 respectively. Other shipping companies also have corresponding price quotes [1]. - On February 27, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1420/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $1857/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $2691/FEU. On March 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1463.40 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1045.08 points [9]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999 TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided, with relatively less pressure on the delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 [4]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in March was 268,600 TEU, and in April it was 287,900 TEU. There were 11 blank sailings in March and 3 TBNs in April [5]. 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: The White House stated that Trump is discussing the role in Iran after the war and has no plan to dispatch ground troops. The Houthi rebels may resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in the first half of the year is relatively low [4][7]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The monthly year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of the Asia - Europe route has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10% [8].