双硅价格大幅震荡，供给过剩格局仍存

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, with a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue weak oscillations, with an oversupply situation persisting due to weak demand and high inventory [6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On March 4, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated upward, with the main contract 2605 opening at 8240 yuan/ton and closing at 8515 yuan/ton, a change of 3.46% from the previous day's settlement. The main contract 2605 held 310668 positions at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 3, 2026, was 20779, a change of - 7 compared to the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices fell. East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was at 9000 - 9100 (- 50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was at 9500 - 9600 (- 50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in some regions were flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of February 26, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 560,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [1] - After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees, and there were mostly exploratory inquiries [1] - In early March, some idle production capacities in Xinjiang resumed production, and there were plans for partial resumption within the month, resulting in a slight increase in supply [1] Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range - bound operation [2] - Inter - period: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On March 4, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated downward, opening at 43380 yuan/ton and closing at 42200 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.51% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 37638 (39340 on the previous trading day) positions, and the trading volume was 12436 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices fell. N - type material was at 46.00 - 53.00 (- 2.40) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was at 43.00 - 45.00 (- 6.00) yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.40, a - 1.43% change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 31.06GW, a 3.33% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 19800.00 tons, a - 1.49% change, and the silicon wafer output was 11.35GW, a 12.94% change [3] - In the silicon wafer sector, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.07 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.37 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.14 (0.00) yuan/piece [3] - In the battery cell sector, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.43 (- 0.01) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.42 (- 0.01) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.43 (- 0.01) yuan/W; HJT210 half - slice battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4] - In the component sector, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W [5] - In March, some large manufacturers have plans to start production one after another. The supply contraction will end, and the output is expected to increase compared to February. However, the demand side has not improved significantly and is expected to remain weak, and the oversupply situation will continue [5] Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range - bound operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain oscillations in the short term [6] - Inter - period: None [6] - Cross - variety: None [6] - Spot - futures: None [6] - Options: None [6]