旺季预期仍未兑现，镍不锈钢震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, the current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy factors, especially Indonesia's nickel ore contraction policy, are the main drivers of nickel price trends. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory state [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, the price trend is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but ample supply and increasing inventory will limit the upside space. Stainless - steel prices are also expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory state [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 134,800 yuan/ton and closed at 137,410 yuan/ton, a change of 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 520,078 (-209,955) lots, and the open interest was 218,571 (-193) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Indonesia's nickel ore policy is fermenting, with the 2026 RKAB quota set at 250 million tons, a 34% drop from 2025's 379 million tons. This has led to expectations of future nickel ore supply shortages, driving up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, inventories are piling up, demand from the stainless - steel sector is weak after the Spring Festival, and the new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season [1]. Nickel Ore and Spot - The nickel ore market continues to be strong. In the Philippines, mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the 2026 production target of 209 million tons is for royalty calculation and does not affect the current RKAB. The domestic trade nickel ore market has strong premium quotes, and the supply shortage is difficult to ease in the short term. In the spot market for refined nickel, the overall performance is stable, and the trading atmosphere has slightly improved [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 4, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,220 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,813 (-18,937) lots, and the open interest was 61,114 (-4,171) lots [3]. - Stainless - steel prices are mainly influenced by nickel prices. On the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, and the开工 rate of stainless - steel plants remains high. On the demand side, consumption is weak after the Spring Festival, and social inventories are accumulating, suppressing price rebounds. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak - season expectations exist, but short - term demand is unlikely to improve significantly [4]. - In the spot market, due to increased production schedules and accumulated inventories, spot quotes are loose, and the market is in a recovery stage with general activity [4]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [5].