缺乏持续上涨驱动，板块整体承压震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The cotton sector lacks continuous upward drivers and is under pressure to fluctuate. The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the new year, and the domestic cotton price center may rise in the medium - long term [1][2] - The sugar sector is in a situation of short - to - medium - term oversupply, but the long - term supply may have potential positive factors. The current sugar price decline space is limited [4][5] - The pulp sector has a weak fundamental situation, with high port inventories, and the short - term pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,205 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,394 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,571 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - In Pakistan, the cumulative listed volume of seed cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 869,000 tons of lint cotton, a 1.2% increase year - on - year. Sindh Province accounted for 52% with a 4% year - on - year increase, and Punjab Province accounted for 48% with a 1% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's outlook shows that in the 2026/27 season, global cotton production will decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption will increase by 1.2% year - on - year, and the ending inventory will decrease by 5.2% year - on - year. Domestically, the textile market is gradually resuming after the holiday, and the medium - long - term cotton price center may rise [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference. Focus on the reduction of the new - year planting area and the release of the target price subsidy policy [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,308 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [4] - In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, a 26.6% increase from the same period in 2024. The cumulative yield from April to December in the 2025/26 season was 74.7 tons/hectare, a 4.6% decrease from the same period in the previous season [4] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but the expected tightening of import licenses provides some support [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - to - medium - term. Focus on changes in domestic import policies [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,246 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.50%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [6] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market changed little, with only individual narrow adjustments [6] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. In terms of demand, although the domestic paper production capacity is expanding, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term due to high port inventories [8]