天然橡胶日度策略报告-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main risk for rubber lies in the potential hindrance to downstream tire exports due to the interpretation differences of the impact of the US - Iran conflict. Chinese tire exports to the Middle East account for about 22% of total exports. In the short term, export volume and price are under pressure, with some orders delayed or cancelled. In the medium term, if the conflict persists, the proportion may decline temporarily, and enterprises will turn to markets in Africa and Latin America to diversify risks [3]. - After the Spring Festival, the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up. In terms of supply - demand fundamentals, rubber producing areas are gradually entering the off - season, with raw material prices firming. Downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with weak terminal demand, sufficient supply, and increasing finished - product inventory. The spot inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate seasonally, putting pressure on spot prices. However, in the long - term, as production peaks, the pattern of oversupply is expected to gradually improve, and the market has reached a consensus that the center of rubber prices will move up [3]. - It is recommended to hold off on trading domestic natural rubber for the time being and avoid chasing high prices. For single - sided long positions in rubber, partial profit - taking can be done when the price breaks through. The support level for the RU main contract is 15700 - 15900, and the pressure level is 16500 - 17000; for the NR main contract, the support level is 13300 - 13500, and the pressure level is 13820 - 14000 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - For rubber, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The main logic is that macro sentiment and overseas raw materials form a short - term resonance. The support range is 16000 - 16900, the pressure range is 17100 - 17500, and the market is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [9]. - For 20 - number rubber, the recommended strategy is also to buy on dips. The main logic is that dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, but the price of Thai glue is firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The support range is 13400 - 13600, the pressure range is 13900 - 14200, and the market is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - The closing price of the rubber main - continuous contract is 16740, with a daily decline of 2.39% or 410, a trading volume of 370025, and an open interest of 152591. - The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main - continuous contract is 13535, with a daily decline of 2.13% or 295, a trading volume of 81471, and an open interest of 63605. - The closing price of the Singapore TSR20 main - continuous contract is 199, with a daily decline of 2.26% or 5, a trading volume of 280, and an open interest of 25143 [9]. 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - number rubber is 50601, with a year - on - year change of 2.66%. Warehouse receipts have rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 115070, with a year - on - year change of - 41.19%. Warehouse receipts were significantly cancelled again today, and the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year. The delivery risk of futures contracts has increased, which supports the RU futures price [14]. 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural rubber (yuan/ton) | 16867 | - 109 | - 313 | | Yunnan glue (yuan/ton) | 14200 | 0 | - 1800 | | Thai Hat Yai glue (baht/kg) | 69 | 1 | - 2 | | Thai Hat Yai cup lump (baht/kg) | 58 | 1 | - 4 | | Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 2035 | - 30 | - 135 | [19] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU main contract basis | Basis | 32 | 252 | 607 | | NR main contract basis | Basis | 2000 | 120 | 650 | | Thai mixed - RU | Non - standard basis | - 875 | 515 | - 440 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard basis | 165 | 160 | 220 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety spread | 3205 | - 130 | 1020 | | Whole milk - Thai mixed | Light - dark colored rubber spread | 415 | - 280 | 235 | [24] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 125 | - 5 | 300 | Range - bound oscillation | Wait and see | | 20 - number rubber | 3 - 4 | - 135 | - 70 | - 410 | Range - bound oscillation | Wait and see | [26]