供应缩量预期仍存，关注伊朗局势进展

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in polyolefins is driven by both supply contraction expectations and a significant increase in cost. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the supply of raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane. This has led to potential defensive production cuts by domestic olefin enterprises, with some already reducing production. Geopolitical conflicts have also pushed up international oil prices and propane prices, strengthening cost support and boosting polyolefin prices [3]. - For PE, there are few planned maintenance activities in March and April. Although the actual production cuts of other enterprises are yet to be realized, the demand side is gradually recovering after the holiday, with downstream restocking and rising spot prices. The short - term geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - For PP, the impact of the Iran situation on overseas PP supply is relatively small. It is mainly driven by cost increases and supply contractions. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance. The demand side is also improving, and short - term cost increases and supply contraction expectations will continue to boost prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The L main contract closed at 7355 yuan/ton (+155), and the PP main contract closed at 7506 yuan/ton (+283). The LL North China spot price was 7150 yuan/ton (+150), the LL East China spot price was 7200 yuan/ton (+100), and the PP East China spot price was 7300 yuan/ton (+270). The LL North China basis was - 205 yuan/ton (-5), the LL East China basis was - 155 yuan/ton (-55), and the PP East China basis was - 206 yuan/ton (-13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate was 75.5% (-0.4%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 673.0 yuan/ton (+8.6), the PP oil - based production profit was - 983.0 yuan/ton (+8.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 1853.0 yuan/ton (+303.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 279.6 yuan/ton (+276.2), the PP import profit was - 370.2 yuan/ton (+15.2), and the PP export profit was - 107.7 US dollars/ton (-39.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 47.7% (+4.9%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [5]