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Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the copper market is at a critical stage of supply - demand re - balancing. The supply side faces high global inventory and pressure in the first half of the month. The demand side improves after the Lantern Festival, but high copper prices inhibit replenishment, and inventory reduction is uncertain. The mine end is tight, and the macro - level is mixed. Copper prices are expected to rise slowly in a volatile manner. If the crude oil price continues to rise, it will have a positive impact on copper prices [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On March 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 100,530 yuan/ton and closed at 101,660 yuan/ton, a - 0.43% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,640 yuan/ton and closed at 101,700 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: The Shanghai copper 2603 contract fluctuated sharply. The mainstream flat - water copper was quoted at a discount of 230 - 100 yuan/ton, and good copper was quoted at a discount of 70 - 50 yuan/ton. The second - stage transactions were mainly at a discount of 210 - 170 yuan/ton. The downstream orders warmed up, and the procurement sentiment increased slightly. Supply arrivals continued, and high social inventory pressured, but demand recovery supported the premium. It is expected that the spot discount will continue to slowly recover [2]. Important Information Summaries - Geopolitical Aspect: The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer. The US will control the rhythm and intensity. NATO intercepting Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. Iran denied the news of seeking negotiations with the US. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East. The US tariff rate will return to the level before the Supreme Court's veto of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the 15% global tariff rate may be adopted this week. The US DFC will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [3]. - Mine End: In 2025, MMG's core mines had good performance. Las Bambas copper mine produced 410,800 tons of copper, a record - high second - annual output. Vale Base Metals is accelerating its IPO preparation, aiming for mid - 2026. Its parent company, Vale, plans to double copper production in the next decade and launched the "Novo Carajás" project in February 2026, with an expected 32% increase in annual copper production in the Carajás region by 2030, reaching about 350,000 tons [4]. - Smelting and Import: Hudbay Minerals will acquire Arizona Sonoran Copper Company. After the acquisition, it aims to build the second - largest copper cathode production area in the US. The Copper World project is expected to produce 92,000 tons of copper annually by 2030, and the Cactus project will add 103,000 tons. The US - Iran conflict mainly affects the recycled copper market, but its impact on China's domestic recycled copper supply is limited [5][6]. Consumption and Inventory - Consumption: High copper prices previously suppressed demand. The power sector had strong order support, while the construction and communication sectors were weak. After the Lantern Festival, the demand in the power and new - energy sectors is expected to improve, but the overall consumption may take time to return to the pre - holiday level [7]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts remained at 261,525 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,970 tons to 302,475 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 560,000 tons, a change of 28,300 tons from the previous week [7]. Strategies - For Spot Enterprises: In early March, maintain a cautious procurement strategy, use the deep - discount structure to buy on dips as needed, and avoid high - level concentrated stocking [8]. - For Mid - stream Processing Enterprises: Prioritize digesting pre - holiday raw materials and finished product inventories, and increase procurement efforts after confirming the inventory reduction signal in the middle and late March [8]. - For Holders of Goods: Reduce inventory exposure on rallies to avoid the risk of an expanding spot discount under high - inventory pressure [8]. - Futures Hedging: Conduct corresponding buying and selling hedging operations in the range of 100,000 - 104,600 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper. Adjust the hedging ratio according to the proximity to the upper and lower limits of the range [8].