2026年2月PMI数据点评：春节假期效应影响下PMI季节性下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Spring Festival holiday led to a seasonal decline in PMI in February 2026. The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 pct month - on - month to 49.0%, lower than market expectations. The non - manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 pct to 49.5%, and the composite PMI decreased by 0.3 pct to 49.5% [3][4]. - In the short term, the lack of domestic demand in the market may continue. The new order indices of both manufacturing and non - manufacturing are in the contraction range, and demand improvement requires policy support. However, there are positive signals in prices, and the possibility of "inflation normalization" should be continuously monitored [5]. - The construction and service industries' PMIs showed a differentiated trend due to the Spring Festival. The construction PMI decreased by 0.6 pct, while the service PMI increased by 0.2 pct. The construction industry's confidence in future development has recovered [5]. - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. Factors such as economic fundamentals, monetary policy, inflation, and real estate all influence the bond market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 2026 February PMI Data Analysis - Manufacturing PMI: Affected by the Spring Festival, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0% in February, a 0.3 pct month - on - month decline, remaining below the boom - bust line. The median decline in the manufacturing PMI during the Spring Festival month from 2017 to now is 0.3 pct. The production, new order, and new export order indices all decreased, but the production and operation activity expectation index increased by 0.6 pct to 53.2%, indicating that manufacturing enterprises' confidence in the subsequent market has recovered [4]. - Domestic demand: The new order index of the manufacturing industry was 48.6%, a 0.6 pct month - on - month decline, and the non - manufacturing new order index was 45.2%, a 0.9 pct month - on - month decline, remaining in the contraction range for 34 consecutive months. Short - term domestic demand is insufficient, and demand improvement requires policy support [5]. - Prices: The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 54.8% and 50.6% respectively. The ex - factory price index has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months, indicating an improvement in the overall price level of the manufacturing market [5]. - Construction and service industries: The construction PMI was 48.2%, a 0.6 pct decline from the previous value, and the service PMI was 49.7%, a 0.2 pct increase from the previous value. The business volume of industries related to residents' travel and consumption during the Spring Festival increased rapidly, driving the service PMI to rise. The construction industry's business activity expectation index increased by 1.1 pct to 50.9%, returning to the expansion range [5]. 2.2 Bond Market Viewpoints - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. The economic recovery is faster than expected, and the beginning of 2026 may see loose credit and fiscal policies, accelerating the cycle recovery. If there is a loose monetary policy, bond yields may decline briefly and then rise. Inflation is expected to pick up, and the possibility of a continuous positive PPI month - on - month increase should be focused on. If inflation rises continuously, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and short - term bond yields may also rise. Real estate may be a lagging indicator, and it may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [6].