政府工作报告影响债市的三个线索

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - When studying the Two Sessions' Government Work Report, the bond market needs to focus on clues from the fiscal, monetary, and inflation aspects [2][7]. - The government's settings for fiscal deficits and new government debt in 2026 are relatively neutral and within the bond market's expectations. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance of ultra - long government bonds [2][4][7]. - The probability of the central bank implementing an interest rate cut during or after the Two Sessions is low, while the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut coming first is relatively high [2][4][7]. - The inflation target in 2026 remains at 2%. The PPI is likely to turn positive in the second quarter, and inflation may affect bond market pricing through the stock - bond risk preference, especially for the ultra - long end [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1. Fiscal - The fiscal expenditure intensity will "only increase and not decrease", and the deficit rate remains flat. In 2026, the deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The total new government debt scale is 11.89 trillion yuan, 300 million yuan more than in 2024 [8]. - It is the first time to detail the specific uses of ultra - long special treasury bonds in the government work report. In 2026, 800 billion yuan of the 1.3 trillion yuan is for "two major" construction, 200 billion yuan for large - scale equipment renewal, and 250 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in [11]. - The overall fiscal policy strength is at the lower end of the bond market's expectations. The bond market's expectations for new government debt scale were relatively neutral, and the actual policy strength basically met the expectations [14]. - Attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance of ultra - long government bonds. The issuance terms of local replacement bonds and special bonds are still long. The issuance of ultra - long special treasury bonds may raise concerns about the duration index constraints of large banks' allocation portfolios. The absence of special treasury bonds for large insurance companies will also affect the bond - allocation power of insurance institutions [15]. 1.2. Monetary - The monetary policy maintains a moderately loose tone with limited incremental guidance. The statements in the government work report are consistent with previous reports and meetings [20]. - If the fiscal policy remains relatively neutral, the probability of an interest rate cut during or after the Two Sessions is low. The central bank still pays attention to the long - term bond interest rate, as seen from the marginal reduction in net treasury bond purchases in February [20]. - Due to large maturities of repurchase and MLF in March and increased stock market volatility, the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut coming first is relatively high [21]. 1.3. Inflation - The inflation target in 2026 remains at 2%, emphasizing the role of "expectation guidance". The PPI is likely to turn positive in the second quarter [22]. - Domestic inflation is affected by the Iran conflict and price increases in various industries. The PPI's repair will be steeper than the CPI's. Inflation may affect bond market pricing through the stock - bond risk preference, especially for the ultra - long end [23].