固定收益部市场日报-20260305

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fixed - income market shows a mixed performance with different trends across various sectors such as Chinese IG, HK, Chinese properties, SE Asia, KR, the Middle East, and AT1s. The market is also influenced by macro - economic factors and company - specific news [2][6]. - West China Cement is recommended for investment due to its strong operating results, overseas expansion, and relieved refinancing risk. Yanlord is considered a survivor in the non - state - owned property sector but is expected to have slow sales momentum and a likely normalization of gross margin [7][9]. - China's economy is facing softening growth momentum in early 2026, and policymakers may use fiscal measures to underpin the economy, with a possible lower GDP growth target [16][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, NORBK 4.683 03/10/31 and NORBK 5.356 03/16/36 tightened 5 - 7bps before noon, but more than half of the spread gains were pared. MEITUA widened 5 - 10bps after S&P downgraded its rating. WESCHI 26 - 29 were unchanged to 0.4pt lower. In HK, MTRC/HKE/LINREI had better buying but spreads closed unchanged, NWDEVL dropped 0.7 - 1.8pts, and VDNWDLs were unchanged to 0.3pt lower. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 29/LNGFOR 27 - 32 leaked 0.2 - 0.5pt. In SE Asia, PCORPM Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. In KR, DAESECs traded 2 - 4bps tighter. In the Middle East, selling flows dominated, and Yankee AT1s recovered [2]. - This morning, financial IG bonds and recent new issues NORBK 31 - 36s tightened 3 - 5bps, and Chinese IG space also traded 3 - 5bps tighter. MEITUAs were unchanged [3]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (+0.78%), Dow (+0.49%), and Nasdaq (+1.29%) were higher. China's Feb'26 Manufacturing PMI was 49.0, lower than the market expectation. The US Feb'26 S&P Global Services PMI was 51.7, lower than the forecast, while the US Feb'26 ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI was 56.1, higher than the expectation. The US Crude Oil Inventories were +3.475mn, higher than the forecast. UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.54%/3.67%/4.09%/4.72% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - WESCHI: The company announced a positive profit alert for FY25, with profit attributable to owners expected to increase 33 - 43% to RMB832.8 - 895.5mn. The drivers are an uptick in international cement sales, lower COGS in China, and negative goodwill from an acquisition. After two tender offers, the outstanding amount of WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 reduced from USD600mn to USD52.0mn. The analyst maintains buy on WESCHI 9.9 12/04/28 and initiates buy on WESCHI 10 ½ 11/11/29 [7][8]. - YLLGSP: Yanlord had mixed FY25 results with lower revenue but higher gross margin and profit before tax, boosted by a Shenzhen URP. Total contract sales declined 37.1% to RMB14.0bn in FY25, and in 2M26, contract sales were cRMB10bn, down c60% yoy. The analyst has a neutral recommendation on YLLGSP 5 ⅛ 05/20/26. Yanlord is considered a survivor in the non - state - owned property sector, with stable net debt and a manageable debt maturity profile. It may use internal resources to repay the USD bond due May'26, and the decision depends on market conditions [9][10][11]. China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI softened in Feb due to CNY distortions. Demand and production deteriorated, with new order and export indexes dropping to new lows, while reflation continued. Non - manufacturing PMI remained in contraction. The 2026 GDP growth target may be lowered to "4.5 - 5%", and policymakers may keep the broad fiscal deficit at around 8% of GDP, including RMB5.9tn general budget deficit, RMB1.3tn ultra - long central government special bonds, and RMB4.5tn local government special bonds [16][19]. Offshore Asia New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced today. Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. HK Branch has a pipeline issue of USD 3 - year with a pricing of SOFR+100 and an issue rating of Baa2/-/- [21][22]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, 97 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB82bn, and month - to - date, 220 credit bonds were issued with RMB186bn raised, a 10.4% yoy increase. Fitch revised Indonesia's outlook to negative and affirmed BBB rating. Several Chinese financial firms are scaling back exposure to Middle Eastern debt. There are also various company - specific news such as S&P downgrading Meituan's rating, Orix selling a stake, etc. [24]