美伊冲突持续，伊朗否认寻求与美国谈判

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may weaken slightly. The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is experiencing a price decline along with gold. Its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with high volatility. The Ag2604 contract may fluctuate between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 22,500 yuan/kilogram [9] - For arbitrage, short the gold - silver ratio at high levels; for options, hold off [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer, and the US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO intercepting Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. Iran denies seeking negotiations with the US, and the election of the supreme leader may be postponed to next week. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation. The US tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court vetoed Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the 15% global tariff rate may be adopted this week. The US DFC will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,163.20 yuan/gram and closed at 1,153.06 yuan/gram, a change of - 2.45% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 1,144.20 yuan/gram, a 0.77% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21,300.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,854.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 526,514 lots, and the open interest was 150,089 lots. The night - session closed at 21,546 yuan/kilogram, a 1.41% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 4, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.096%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury was 0.555%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long position decreased by 8,940 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position increased by 847 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 586,170 lots, a 7.58% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 7,345 lots, and the short position decreased by 7,675 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,433,023 lots, a - 24.98% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,101.33 tons, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,981 tons, an increase of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 4, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was 52.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was 923.69 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 52.76, a - 3.38% change from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 64.78, a 13.72% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 93,672 kilograms, a 15.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 546,706 kilograms, an 8.45% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]