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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Iran situation has escalated, affecting energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas, with potential impacts on oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and shipping sectors. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, but there is a "sell - the - fact" risk. The conflict may further increase global inflation risk [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the Two Sessions, the stock index recovers. The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the Fed is cautious about the Middle East situation and not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy [2]. - There are opportunities for bottom - up allocation in the commodity market. Different commodity sectors have different investment focuses, such as long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector and the need to monitor the Iran situation in the energy sector [3]. - The strategy is to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran situation escalated on February 28 with US - Israeli air strikes on Iran. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities, and the scope of the conflict is expanding. Key factors include whether the conflict turns into a ground war and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, and the event may increase global inflation risk [1]. - The Two Sessions in China are being held. Historically, during the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, and after the Two Sessions, the stock index recovers. The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the Fed is cautious about the Middle East situation [2]. Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, the short - term Iran situation needs attention, and there is a "sell - the - fact" risk. OPEC+ will increase production from April. Chemical products like PTA and PVC are relatively resistant to decline. Agricultural products need to consider weather and pig disease, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. News - Trump instructed companies to provide insurance for maritime trade in the Gulf and may escort oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military said ships in the Strait may face risks. The Fed said the Iran war adds new variables to monetary policy. The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session will be held from March 5th to 12th. Iraqi oil fields are shutting down, and European natural gas prices have soared. Saudi Aramco has adjusted its oil shipment operations. China's February RatingDog comprehensive PMI reached a 33 - month high [5].