——2026年3月5日利率债观察：物价的合理回升与长债的收益率

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The 2026 Government Work Report emphasizes promoting economic stability and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy, which is consistent with the economic work conference in December last year and highlights the importance of promoting a reasonable and moderate increase in consumer prices and a virtuous economic cycle [1] - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, positive factors for price recovery have been accumulating. The year-on-year increase in CPI in December last year reached 0.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher than in August. In January this year, due to factors such as the lunar new year and international oil price changes, the year-on-year increase in CPI declined. The report believes that the expected target of a 2% increase in consumer prices is achievable through policy measures to improve the total supply and demand relationship [1] - Traditionally, bond yields are generally positively correlated with CPI. However, this year's real GDP growth is likely to be lower than last year, with prominent supply-demand imbalances, downward pressure on overall investment, and insufficient consumption growth, which put downward pressure on bond yields. Bond yields follow monetary policy, and the policy rate is more likely to respond to the downward pressure on the economy rather than inflation [2] - Recently, internal and external factors restricting interest rate cuts have significantly eased, and the implementation of policies depends on economic conditions. The average manufacturing PMI in January and February this year was 49.15%, lower than the 1/4 quantile of the 16 months from September 2024 to December 2025. The average values of the non-manufacturing business activity index, construction business activity index, and composite PMI output index in January and February were the lowest since September 2024 [3] - After the expectation of a 7D OMO interest rate cut is formed, the central value of the 10Y Treasury bond yield will decline. The 10Y Treasury bond yield has been oscillating in the range of 1.8% - 1.9% since the end of August 2025. After the interest rate cut expectation is formed (especially after implementation), the operating range of the 10Y Treasury bond yield may decline to 1.7% - 1.8% [3] - The current spread between the 10Y Treasury bond and 7D OMO is less than 40bp, which is still at a relatively low level historically and has limited room for further compression. The next 7D OMO interest rate cut is likely to result in a parallel shift of the short and long ends of the yield curve, with the interest rates of DR001, DR007, 1Y AAA - grade CD, and 10Y Treasury bond all declining by approximately 10bp [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Price Recovery and Long - Term Bond Yields - The 2026 Government Work Report emphasizes promoting price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy, and positive factors for price recovery have been accumulating since the fourth quarter of 2025. The expected target of a 2% increase in consumer prices is achievable [1] - There is a conflict between the upward pressure on bond yields from price indicators and the downward pressure from economic growth indicators. Bond yields follow monetary policy, and the policy rate is more likely to respond to the downward pressure on the economy [2] - The implementation of interest rate cut policies depends on economic conditions. After the expectation of a 7D OMO interest rate cut is formed, the central value of the 10Y Treasury bond yield will decline. The next 7D OMO interest rate cut is likely to result in a parallel shift of the short and long ends of the yield curve [3][4]