2026年政府经济预期目标

Group 1: Report Core Views - The government's main expected targets for economic development in 2026 include a GDP growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a target of over 12 million new urban jobs, a CPI increase of around 2%, and a reduction of around 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP [3]. - The government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and maintain stability [4]. Group 2: Government Expected Targets - GDP Growth: The expected GDP growth rate for 2026 is 4.5% - 5%, compared to 5% in 2025 [3][5]. - New Urban Jobs: The target for new urban jobs in 2026 is over 12 million, the same as in 2025 [3][5]. - CPI: The expected CPI increase in 2026 is around 2%, consistent with 2025 [3][5]. - Fiscal Deficit: The deficit rate in 2026 is planned to be around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [4][5]. - Urban Survey Unemployment Rate: The expected urban survey unemployment rate in 2026 is around 5.5%, the same as in 2025 [3][5]. - Local Special Bonds: The planned issuance of local government special bonds in 2026 is 4.4 trillion yuan, the same as in 2025 [4][5]. Group 3: Actual Economic Performance - GDP Growth: In 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5%, and in 2024 it was also 5% [5]. - CPI: In 2025, the actual CPI cumulative increase was 0%, and in 2024 it was 0.2% [5]. - Deficit Rate: The actual deficit rate (national fiscal revenue - expenditure gap) in 2024 was -4.81 [5]. - Urban Survey Unemployment Rate: In 2025, the actual urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1% [5].