瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 4100 mark. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.66%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly, and over 4000 stocks in the whole market rose. Overseas, the US ADP employment in February exceeded expectations, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI price index hit a one - year low. The US 10 - year Treasury futures yield once exceeded 4.1%. Domestically, in February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing PMI declined, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. However, strong consumer spending supported a slight increase in the non - manufacturing PMI. The government work report lowered the economic growth target for 2026 compared to 2025, indicating a shift towards high - quality development. The fiscal policy arrangement is more proactive. With the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on re - inflation expectations gradually digested, the Two Sessions have become the focus of the market. The support for high - tech manufacturing in the government work report has led to a significant rise in related sectors, and the proactive fiscal policy has strengthened the market's expectation of policy - supported economic growth [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Contracts: The latest price of the IF main contract (2603) is 4629.0, up 43.0; the IF sub - main contract (2606) is 4566.6, up 29.2. Similar price increases are seen in IC, IH, and IM contracts [2] - Futures Spreads: The IF - IH spread of the current month contract is 1642.0, up 23.2; the IC - IF spread of the current month contract is 3626.6, down 1.8. There are also changes in other spreads [2] - Futures - Spot Basis: The basis of the IF main contract is - 18.7, down 7.1; the basis of the IH main contract is - 1.5, up 0.6. Similar changes are seen in IC and IM contracts [2] - Futures Positions: The net position of the top 20 in IF is 29,238.00, down 1479.0; the net position of the top 20 in IH is 20,505.00, down 1386.0. Similar decreases are seen in IC and IM [2] 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - Trading Volume and Balance: A - share trading volume is 24,125.91 billion yuan, up 246.49 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 26,426.88 billion yuan, down 86.23 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume is 3297.82 billion yuan, down 843.68 billion yuan [2] - Other Indicators: The proportion of rising stocks is 74.35%, up 42.56 percentage points; Shibor is 1.267%, up 0.001 percentage points. There are also changes in option prices, implied volatilities, and other indicators [2] 3.3 Industry News - Domestic Policy: The government work report sets the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. It will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and support the development of emerging and future industries [2] - Overseas News: The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025, exceeding expectations [2]