瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic methanol production decreased recently as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts was more than the output of restored production capacity. The supply and demand situation shows that the overall supply increased as domestic MTO plants gradually resumed operation and reached a high - load level before the Spring Festival. The inventory of inland enterprises increased slightly this week, and the port inventory remained basically stable, with inventory accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will decline next week, and specific attention should be paid to the unloading speed and changes in pick - up volume. The operation of domestic MTO enterprises' devices is stable, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable. The marginal pull of geopolitical sentiment on the market is gradually weakening, but short - term price fluctuations are still expected to be large. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,487 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 702,758 lots, a decrease of 100,162 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 118,907 lots, an increase of 10,537 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,931, with no change [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,987.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 432.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 300 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 335 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 340 euros/ton, an increase of 12 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 35 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.11 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.0684 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 375,100 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons. The methanol import profit was - 56.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74.72 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.734 million tons, an increase of 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 92.8%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 14.7%, an increase of 2.65 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 3.33%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 84.11%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.22%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 84.08%, with no change; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 803 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 49.4%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 38.64%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 60.54%, an increase of 9.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 60.53%, an increase of 9.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of March 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.19%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 295,200 tons, an increase of 85,500 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 104.91%. - As of March 4, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 27,400 tons. The port inventory was basically stable this week, with accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05% [3].