瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of hawkish policies has caused the expectation of interest rate cuts to decline again, and the probability of two interest rate cuts within the year is expected to have dropped to 50% [2]. - The 10Y - 2Y U.S. Treasury yield spread continues to converge, indicating that the market is still pricing in the strengthening of inflation expectations and the decline of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - In the short term, asset selling may lead to tight liquidity, but considering the strong uncertainty in the subsequent situation between the U.S. and Iran, it may continue to drive the safe - haven buying demand in the precious metals market [2]. - In the long - term, the structural logic of deepening geopolitical rifts and weakening U.S. dollar credit remains unchanged, and the attractiveness of gold as the preferred safe - haven hedging asset still exists [2]. - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 1152.000, down 1.1; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram) is 21639, down 215.00 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold (daily, lots) are 125,040.00, down 1379.00; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver (daily, lots) are 3,718.00, down 1688.00 [2]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 233,909.00, down 184589.00; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 412,712.00, down 70052.00 [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold (daily, kilograms) is 105033, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver (daily, kilograms) is 272,721, down 22102 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold spot price is 1149.61, down 3.57; the Huatong No. 1 silver spot price is 21,443.00, up 504.00 [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 2.39, down 2.51; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 196.00, up 719.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons) are 1081.04, down 18.00; the SLV Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons) are 15,947.57, down 33.81 [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 159177.00, down 738.00; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 22,260.00, down 1743.00 [2]. - The total gold supply (quarterly, tons) is 1302.80, down 0.19; the total silver supply (annually, tons) is 32,056.00, up 482.00 [2]. - The total gold demand (quarterly, tons) is 1345.32, up 79.57; the total silver demand (annually, tons) is 35,716.00, down 491.00 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The U.S. dollar index is 98.80, down 0.47; the 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield is 1.80, up 0.03 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 21.15, down 2.42; the CBOE gold volatility index is 36.48, down 2.29 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.33, down 0.02; the gold - silver ratio is 59.33, down 2.59 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran may last for 8 weeks or longer, and NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause [2]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the U.S. may adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week [2]. - U.S. President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four - year term [2]. - The U.S. ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, the largest increase since November 2025, exceeding the expected 50,000. The previous value was revised from an increase of 22,000 to an increase of 11,000 [2]. - The U.S. ISM services PMI in February was 56.1, significantly rebounding from 53.8 in January, higher than the market - expected 53.5, and reaching the fastest expansion rate since August 2022 [2]. - According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by April is 12.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts is 0.3%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by June is 32.1% [2]. - The London gold and silver market fluctuated widely. London silver once plunged nearly 5% in the afternoon and then rebounded. The Shanghai Gold 2604 contract closed up 0.46% at 1152 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2606 contract closed up 1.96% at 21639 yuan/kilogram [2]. - Geopolitical factors such as the interruption of passage in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on multiple Gulf countries have boosted market risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - The external equity market stabilized and rebounded last night, the marginal impact of market liquidity shock eased, and the sentiment in the precious metals market improved [2]. - The U.S. ADP employment in February exceeded market expectations, the Fed's Beige Book showed that most regions' economies were growing moderately, and the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continued to be strong, posing strong upward resistance to gold prices [2]. - Rising energy prices have reignited market concerns about rising inflation [2]. - Fed Chairman nominee Warsh will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - U.S. January trade balance data at 20:30 on March 5 [2] - U.S. February Challenger job - cuts data at 20:30 on March 5 [2]