Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-05 09:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material supply of ferronickel is expected to shrink. The Philippines is entering the rainy season with declining nickel ore grades, and domestic ferronickel plants' raw material inventories are tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, which will put pressure on ferronickel production [2]. - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the rising ferronickel price has pushed up the cost. With more steel mill overhauls at the end of the year, the increase in production is limited [2]. - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, but stainless - steel exports still maintain high growth, showing strong export demand resilience. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere calms down, and the national stainless - steel social inventory enters a seasonal accumulation period [2]. - Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, both long and short positions are cautious. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the range of 13,700 - 14,400 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The price difference between the 04 - 05 contracts is - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 1,030 hands. The main contract position volume data is not provided [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 52,135 tons, an increase of 544 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 10,150 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. - The basis of stainless steel is 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 140,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) in the country is 1,095 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 652,300 tons, an increase of 81,200 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, and the monthly output of excavators is 9,500 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The government work report shows that China's development is moving towards new and high - quality directions, with new - quality productivity developing steadily, and achievements in science and technology innovation [2]. - The first press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held on March 4. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft will be submitted for review, and this year will adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, boost consumption, and formulate laws such as the childcare service law [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the court overruled Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US may adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week [2]. - In February, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [2]. - China's S&P manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, higher than the expected 50.2 and the previous value of 50.3; the service industry PMI was 56.7, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.3; the comprehensive PMI was 55.4, higher than the previous value of 51.6 [2].