瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260305

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the tight supply situation shows signs of alleviation. The production of refined tin is currently limited but faces upward pressure after the Spring Festival. The import pressure is increasing, while the demand in the AI field is expected to drive the growth of solder demand. The tin price has recently declined, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, the inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has rebounded. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the competition at the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 391,810 yuan/ton, down 9,320 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract of Shanghai tin is 210 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 51,200 US dollars/ton, up 1,415 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 38,756 lots, down 703 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 10,146 lots, down 205 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,780 tons, up 50 tons; the inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 12,253 tons, up 1,239 tons; the LME tin canceled warrants is 345 tons, up 35 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,609 tons, down 289 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 406,850 yuan/ton, down 1,650 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 404,890 yuan/ton, down 6,330 yuan; the basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 15,040 yuan/ton, up 7,670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 62 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars; the import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 392,500 yuan/ton, down 4,450 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 396,500 yuan/ton, down 4,450 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 257,070 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 45,000 tons [3] 6. Industry News - The government work report shows that China's new - quality productivity has developed steadily, with rich scientific and technological innovation achievements. The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session held its first press conference, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft will be reviewed. The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the previous level, and the US may adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week. Affected by the Spring Festival, China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. China's February S&P manufacturing PMI was 52.1, service PMI was 56.7, and comprehensive PMI was 55.4 [3]