Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-05 09:03Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo oscillatory adjustments and maintain a range - bound operation, with attention focused on the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production. The export window may close again. The downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, though there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. The downstream mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and recent zinc price drops have not spurred strong purchasing. Domestic social inventories have increased significantly, while LME zinc inventories have decreased slightly, and spot premiums remain low. Technically, the position has decreased, price adjustment occurs, and trading between long and short positions has become less active [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,319 US dollars/ton, up 46.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 184,234 lots, down 2,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,196 lots, up 851 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 126,052 tons, up 39,027 tons; the LME inventory is 95,250 tons, down 125 tons [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,710 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,870 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 190 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 16.64 US dollars/ton, up 2.57 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons. The social zinc inventory is 2.117 million tons, up 315,000 tons. The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.39%, down 1.47 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.38%, down 1.51 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 39.28%, down 4.45 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 20.46%, down 0.04 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - The government work report shows that China's new - quality productivity has developed steadily, with achievements in various high - tech fields. The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session held a press conference on March 4, with information about the "15th Five - Year Plan" and policies on expanding domestic demand, consumption promotion, and support for the private economy. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned tariff rate changes, and the US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000. China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0% (down 0.3 percentage points), non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (up 0.1 percentage points), and the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5% (down 0.3 percentage points). China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, service PMI was 56.7, and the comprehensive PMI was 55.4 [3].