政府工作报告简评：两会政策定调如何影响债市走向？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The government work report continues the tone of being proactive, prudent, and seeking progress while maintaining stability. The positive fiscal and loose monetary stances remain unchanged, but the market has largely priced in the target setting of key indicators, so the impact on the bond market is limited and unsustainable. The yield of the 10-year government bond may fluctuate downward again, with a potential decline of about 5BP in the 1-2 weeks after the Two Sessions based on historical experience [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Current Situation Judgment and 2026 Economic Targets - 2025 Summary and Challenges: In 2025, China faced complex and severe situations with both external shocks and domestic dilemmas. However, the economy maintained overall stability and achieved the expected 5% growth target. Currently, there are both strategic opportunities and risks, but China's long-term positive economic fundamentals remain unchanged [1]. - 2026 Policy Orientation and Targets: The overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" continues, with a GDP growth target of 4.5 - 5%. Policies will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting the development of new-quality productivity, stabilizing the real estate market, and encouraging the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market. Other targets such as the urban survey unemployment rate (around 5.5%) and CPI (around 2%) remain unchanged [2]. Policy Direction Setting - Generalized Fiscal Policy: It remains proactive. The deficit rate is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to replenish capital. Local government special bonds are set at 4.4 trillion yuan, with a focus on major project construction and debt resolution [3]. - Monetary Policy: It continues to be "moderately loose." For the first time, promoting stable economic growth and price recovery are mentioned as the top priorities. Expectations include flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, as well as the innovation of more optimal structural monetary policy tools. Reserve requirement ratio cuts may occur earlier [4]. - Promoting Consumption, Expanding Domestic Demand, and Investment: These are the top priorities for economic growth in 2026. The government will implement a special consumption promotion action, set up a 100 billion yuan fiscal-financial coordinated专项资金 to promote domestic demand, and arrange 800 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds for "two major" construction. Additionally, 800 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments will be issued to drive more social capital into investment [5][6]. - Cultivating and Strengthening New Driving Forces: The report emphasizes the importance of cultivating new driving forces and achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance. It will support the large-scale equipment update of traditional industries with 200 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds, encourage central and state-owned enterprises to develop emerging industries, and focus on the development of "AI +" [7]. - Stabilizing the Real Estate Market: The report aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. It also encourages the exploration of multiple channels to revitalize existing commercial housing and promotes the construction of a new real estate development model [8]. Bond Market Outlook - The government work report's key targets and budget settings are mostly in line with market expectations. After short-term fluctuations, long-term interest rates may continue to fluctuate downward. However, considering that substantial loose monetary operations may not occur quickly in the short term, the downward momentum of interest rates may be limited. Attention should be paid to factors such as output inflation pressure and exchange rates under the current geopolitical conflicts [9].