GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-05 09:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under short-term pressure but better than expected, with profitability stabilizing marginally. AI cloud and large models are driving growth, while applications and autonomous driving open up long-term opportunities [3][4]. - Baidu's total revenue for Q4 2025 was 32.74 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations. Core revenue decreased by 5.7% to 26.11 billion RMB, while iQIYI's revenue increased by 2.7% to 6.79 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit was 3.91 billion RMB, down 41.8% year-on-year, but also above expectations [11][14]. - The company announced a stock repurchase plan of up to 5 billion USD and introduced a dividend policy, enhancing shareholder return mechanisms [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: 133.13 billion RMB - 2025: 129.08 billion RMB - 2026: 135.92 billion RMB - 2027: 144.99 billion RMB - 2028: 155.71 billion RMB - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are: - 2024: 27.00 billion RMB - 2025: 18.23 billion RMB - 2026: 19.49 billion RMB - 2027: 21.93 billion RMB - 2028: 26.79 billion RMB - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2025 to 17.2% in 2028 [5][14]. Growth Drivers - AI cloud infrastructure revenue is projected to grow by 34% year-on-year in 2025, with subscription revenue from AI accelerator infrastructure increasing by 143% in Q4 2025. AI-enabled business revenue exceeded 11 billion RMB in Q4, accounting for 43% of Baidu's core revenue [11][14]. - The launch of the Wenxin large model 5.0 and the restructuring of the model team are aimed at optimizing multi-modal understanding and creative writing applications [11]. - The autonomous driving service "Luobo Kuaipao" has accelerated, completing 3.4 million fully autonomous orders in Q4, a year-on-year increase of over 200% [11][14]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for Baidu Group is adjusted to 151 HKD based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting the company's transition towards AI-driven growth and the expected performance of its various business segments [14][18].