【华创策略】AI视角下的政府工作报告投资要点

Core Conclusions - The government work report continues the previous "dual expansion" monetary and fiscal policy framework, creating a favorable macroeconomic environment for the stock market to maintain its upward trend. The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, which is more pragmatic; the fiscal policy is "more proactive" with an increased deficit scale: a deficit rate of 4%, with a deficit size of 5.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year; the monetary policy is "moderately loose," providing space for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to create liquidity easing [3][25]. - Greater expectations are placed on the performance of listed companies in 2026. The report explicitly states the goal of "promoting the overall price level from negative to positive, with consumer prices reasonably and moderately rebounding." The monetary policy also emphasizes "promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations." A 4% deficit rate and a 5.9 trillion yuan fiscal deficit imply an expected nominal GDP growth rate of about 5%, suggesting a potential rebound in the GDP deflator to 0-0.5%. The return of inflation is expected to drive up the performance of listed companies, thereby digesting the currently relatively high static valuations, shifting the stock market's main logic from liquidity-driven financial re-inflation in the first half to EPS-driven physical re-inflation in the second half [3][25]. - Focus on cyclical and technological innovation sectors. 1) Cyclical: Major engineering projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and fiscal policies are expected to provide new demand support for cyclical assets, with performance likely to continue improving under tight supply constraints. 2) Technological innovation: The 2026 government work tasks explicitly propose to develop emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and low-altitude economy; cultivate future industries like future energy, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G, which are expected to enhance the risk appetite for technological innovation [3][25]. Theme Word Frequency Distribution - From 2010 to 2026, the government work reports show a shift from "macroeconomic layout" to "precise policies and support," with "investment" and "support" gaining significant weight, becoming core to most themes. The term "high quality" runs through various fields, indicating a deepening of development requirements from "quantity" to "quality." The frequency of terms like "safety, governance, employment, and security" highlights a stronger emphasis on bottom-line guarantees and people's livelihood concerns while promoting development [4][7]. Policy Strength Analysis - In 2026, the policy strength score for "economic situation judgment" and "expanding domestic demand" themes remains stable compared to last year, reflecting the continuity of previous policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand. The themes of "macroeconomic policy" and "opening up" also generally follow previous trends [14][19]. - The policy strength score for "risk prevention" is the only theme that saw both an increase in strength and a rise in its share of the report, indicating a growing concern for the health of the capital market and its sustainable development [19][20]. AI Interpretation of Government Work Report: 2026 Economic and Social Development Overall Requirements and Policy Orientation - The report emphasizes that 2026 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the core of government work being to adhere to the work guideline of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully implementing the new development concept, and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern. The focus is on promoting high-quality development through more proactive macro policies, enhancing policy coordination, and continuously expanding domestic demand [26]. - The main expected targets for 2026 include an economic growth target of 4.5%-5%, a target urban survey unemployment rate of around 5.5%, and a target consumer price increase of about 2%, aiming to promote a positive turnaround in prices. Other key targets include a grain output of around 1.4 trillion jin and a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by about 3.8% [26][27]. 2026 Government Work Tasks - The core task is to coordinate the promotion of consumption and investment. On the consumption side, special actions to boost consumption will be implemented, including a special fund to support the replacement of consumer goods. On the investment side, the focus will be on new quality productivity and major projects, with specific funding allocated to stimulate private investment [27]. - The report emphasizes the need to develop new quality productivity tailored to local conditions, support the upgrading of traditional industries, and cultivate emerging and future industries, including integrated circuits and quantum technology [27]. - The report also highlights the importance of enhancing independent innovation capabilities, strengthening original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs, and promoting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [27].