EBSCN·2026-03-05 10:47Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for ASMPT to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a significant business transformation, fully shifting towards advanced packaging in the semiconductor backend [1] - The Q4 2025 revenue reached approximately USD 509 million (HKD 39.59 billion), representing a year-over-year increase of 30.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.2%, driven primarily by strong sales in SEMI and SMT businesses [4][6] - The company has optimized its business structure by focusing on backend packaging, having sold its AAMI business for approximately HKD 11.1 billion and planning to terminate the NEXX business [5][9] Revenue Performance - Q4 2025 revenue from semiconductor solutions was USD 246 million, up 19.5% YoY and 9.4% QoQ, driven by AI-related applications and photonic packaging demand [4] - SMT business revenue was USD 263 million, up 43.8% YoY and 15% QoQ, supported by demand from AI server motherboards, Chinese electric vehicles, and confirmed bulk orders for smartphones [4] - The overall new orders in Q4 2025 were approximately USD 500 million, a YoY increase of 28.2% and a QoQ increase of 5% [6] Profitability and Forecast - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was HKD 1.20 billion, a YoY increase of 390.7% and a QoQ increase of 42.2%, driven by revenue growth and operational leverage [4] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between USD 470 million and USD 530 million, with a QoQ decrease of 1.8% but a YoY increase of 29.5% [6] - The forecast for net profit in 2026 is raised to HKD 1.68 billion, reflecting a 54.5% YoY growth [9] Market Position and Future Outlook - The TCB business is experiencing rapid growth, with a 146% YoY increase in revenue for 2025, and the global TCB market is projected to reach approximately USD 1.6 billion by 2028 [7][9] - The company aims to capture a 35%-40% market share in the TCB segment, with ongoing advancements in technology and customer relationships [7][8] - The report indicates a strong long-term outlook for advanced packaging business, which is expected to significantly boost performance and valuation [9]