玉米淀粉日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is still low, and the spot price continues to rise, while the price of Northeast corn is also increasing. The price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, as farmers sell more grain in March, the upward space of Northeast corn spot price is limited, and so is the upward space of 05 corn [4][7][9]. - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong and Northeast China is rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively stable and higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. It is expected that the 05 starch will oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2345, up 5 (0.21%), with a trading volume of 1,664 (down 6.73%) and an open interest of 6,126 (up 5.35%) [2]. - C2605 closed at 2384, up 5 (0.21%), with a trading volume of 584,219 (up 5.24%) and an open interest of 1,484,708 (up 1.35%) [2]. - C2509 closed at 2397, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 19,134 (down 13.85%) and an open interest of 118,754 (up 2.04%) [2]. - CS2601 closed at 2682, up 13 (0.48%), with a trading volume of 7 (down 74.07%) and an open interest of 113 (up 2.73%) [2]. - CS2605 closed at 2696, up 4 (0.15%), with a trading volume of 108,488 (down 21.74%) and an open interest of 252,833 (down 0.73%) [2]. - CS2509 closed at 2710, up 5 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 2,019 (up 12.04%) and an open interest of 15,911 (up 2.51%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2190, 2230, 2420, 2400, 2395, 2490, and 2520 respectively, with price changes of 10, 0, 14, 10, 5, 0, and 10. The basis was - 207, - 167, 23, 3, 11, 93, and 123 respectively [2]. - Starch: The spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2780, 2700, 2750, 2920, 2920, 2970, and 2900 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, and 50. The basis was 84, 4, 54, 224, 224, 274, and 204 respectively [2]. 3.1.3 Price Difference - Corn inter - period: C01 - C05 was - 39 (unchanged), C05 - C09 was - 13 (up 4), C09 - C01 was 52 (down 4) [2]. - Starch inter - period: CS01 - CS05 was - 14 (up 9), CS05 - CS09 was - 14 (down 1), CS09 - CS01 was 28 (down 8) [2]. - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 was 313 (up 4), CS01 - C01 was 337 (up 8), CS05 - C05 was 312 (down 1) [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - US corn has declined, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, but it is still oscillating at the bottom. The in - quota tariff for US corn is 11%, and for sorghum is 12%. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2238 yuan. The closing price at northern ports is strong, around 2395 yuan. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area continues to rise. The operating rate of deep - processing plants in North China has increased, and the supply of corn is affected by the weather and is relatively low. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The prices of wheat and corn in auctions continue. The price of North China wheat is strong, around 2520 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the short - term spot price of corn is relatively strong. However, as farmers sell more grain, the upward space of the 05 corn futures price is limited [4][7]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2900 yuan, and the spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, reaching 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively stable and higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. Affected by the weather, the supply of corn has decreased, the downstream operating rate has increased, the spot price of corn has risen significantly, and enterprises are still suffering large losses. It is expected that the 05 starch futures will oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Unilateral - The 05 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Go short on 05 corn lightly at high prices and set stop - losses [10]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Go long on the price difference between 05 corn and starch at low prices [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and operate in a rolling manner [12]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures, showing the closing price of North Port corn, the basis of corn 05 contract, the price difference between corn 5 - 9, the price difference between corn starch 5 - 9, the basis of corn starch 05 contract, and the price difference of corn starch 05 contract [15][16][20].