银河期货液化气日报-20260305

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The international LPG market is expected to have significant cost - side support due to the impact of Saudi loading and the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects China's imports, increasing the uncertainty of domestic VLGC arrivals from late March to April. The cost of shipping from the US to the Far East will also rise substantially. As a result, both the domestic and international LPG markets are expected to strengthen. Attention should be paid to navigation and freight conditions. [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - Domestic Futures: The price of PG2602 on March 5, 2026, was 5127, down 177 from the previous day. The main contract position was 95317, a decrease of 3748, and the warrant quantity was 5652, a drop of 7. [4] - Domestic Spot: In the华南 region, the price of refinery - produced gas was 5160 and imported gas was 5200, both unchanged. In the华东 region, refinery - produced gas rose by 149 to 4857, and imported gas increased by 12 to 5280. In the Shandong region, refinery - produced gas increased by 10 to 4850, and ether - post - C4 decreased by 90. The base difference increased by 177 to 21. [4] - External Market Price: BRENT rose by 0.4 to 81.8, while most other external market prices remained unchanged. [4] - Disk Profit: The import profit FEI decreased by 169.9 to - 860.0, and PDH FEI decreased by 39.7 to - 1606.7. [4] - Price Ratio: The FEI/BRENT ratio decreased by 0.04 to 9.3, and the FEI/MOPJ ratio remained unchanged at 31.4. [4] 3.2 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - An oil tanker was attacked in the northern Persian Gulf by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy on Thursday morning. - An oil tanker was attacked near Kuwait, highlighting the risks of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where ship traffic has dropped significantly. - Chinese and Japanese refining enterprises relying on Middle Eastern oil have suspended refined oil exports to ensure domestic supply. - Iraq, the second - largest oil producer in OPEC, exported an average of 3.57 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in February. [5] 3.3 Spot Overview - Shandong Region: The estimated price of civil gas was 4850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Refinery sales were smooth yesterday, but today the mainstream price stabilized and some areas increased. The ether - post market showed mixed trends, with a fair trading atmosphere. It is expected to decline tomorrow. [6] - East China Region: The mainstream transaction price of imported gas was 5280 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. Although the terminal purchasing enthusiasm declined, due to limited arrivals and high uncertainty, the price rose steadily. [6] - South China Region: The average price of domestic gas was 5160 yuan/ton, and imported gas was 5200 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The market was stable, with tepid trading due to insufficient terminal demand. Downstream maintained a high - inventory, just - in - time purchasing mode. [6] - North China Region: The benchmark price of civil gas was 4626 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton. The market continued to rise but with a narrowing increase, and there was insufficient upward momentum. [7]