钢材&铁矿石日报：政策利好兑现，钢矿延续震荡-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.10%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions. At present, both the supply and demand sides of rebar are recovering, and industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating. The weak fundamentals continue to put pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decrease of 0.19%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions. Currently, under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand toughness is weakening. Under the situation of both supply and demand decline, the contradictions of hot-rolled coil continue to accumulate, and the price continues to be under pressure. Under the dominance of the weak reality logic, it is expected that hot-rolled coil will still maintain an oscillating bottom-finding trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.27%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions. At present, the demand for iron ore has improved marginally, providing support for ore prices, but the sustainability is questionable. Moreover, the supply has rebounded again, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5% - 5%. The government work report states that the main expected development targets for 2026 are: economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, striving for better results in actual work; the urban surveyed unemployment rate is about 5.5%, and more than 12 million new urban jobs will be created; the consumer price increase is about 2%; the growth of residents' income is in sync with economic growth; the balance of international payments is basically balanced; the grain output is about 1.4 trillion catties; and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 3.8% [7]. - The deficit ratio in 2026 is proposed to be arranged at about 4%, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued. The government work report mentioned that when continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, this year's deficit ratio is proposed to be arranged at about 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan compared with the previous year. The general public budget expenditure scale will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan compared with the previous year. It is proposed to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan to continuously support the construction of "two important" projects and the work of "two new" initiatives [8]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in January 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises decreased by 4.28% year-on-year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 0.94% year-on-year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 0.91% year-on-year; the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 5.11% year-on-year. The total power consumption of member enterprises increased by 2.89% year-on-year. The self-generated power increased by 5.79% year-on-year; the self-generated power ratio was 60.06%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year. The clean energy power generation increased by 58.74% year-on-year. Among them, the wind power generation increased by 651.26% year-on-year; the photovoltaic power generation increased by 53.10% year-on-year. The water consumption of member enterprises increased by 222.8679 million cubic meters year-on-year, an increase of 2.93%. Among them, the water intake increased by 6.2185 million cubic meters compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 5.32%; the reuse volume increased by 216.6493 million cubic meters compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 2.89%. The water reuse rate was 98.43%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year; the water intake per ton of steel was 2.41 cubic meters per ton, an increase of 9.37% year-on-year [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,301 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,230 yuan, 3,140 yuan, and 3,266 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) is 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) is 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is 70 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,000 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder (Shandong port) is 752 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) is 757 yuan, the ocean freight from Australia is 11.40 yuan, the ocean freight from Brazil is 25.66 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) is 99.60 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 100.20 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract is 3,071 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a maximum price of 3,085 yuan, a minimum price of 3,061 yuan, a trading volume of 710,699 lots, a volume difference of -77,573 lots, an open interest of 1,839,511 lots, and an open interest difference of -42,377 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil active contract is 3,212 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.00%, a maximum price of 3,229 yuan, a minimum price of 3,207 yuan, a trading volume of 280,903 lots, a volume difference of -88,862 lots, an open interest of 1,435,635 lots, and an open interest difference of -16,252 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract is 752.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.40%, a maximum price of 753.0 yuan, a minimum price of 745.0 yuan, a trading volume of 230,305 lots, a volume difference of -9,253 lots, an open interest of 525,573 lots, and an open interest difference of -7,288 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel mill production situation (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 independent electric furnace steel mills' operating rate, and 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profitability) [16][24][32] 3.5后市研判 - For rebar, both the supply and demand sides are recovering. The resumption of production of short-process steel mills has led to an increase in output, with the weekly output of rebar increasing by 82,100 tons month-on-month, and there is still room for growth. Coupled with the relatively high inventory level, the supply pressure has increased. At the same time, the demand for rebar has recovered as expected, with both the weekly apparent demand and high-frequency transactions increasing, but they are still at a relatively low level. Moreover, the policy end has not exceeded expectations, and the downstream industries continue to operate weakly and stably. The marginal improvement of rebar demand is limited in terms of incremental space. In short, both the supply and demand sides of rebar are recovering, and industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating. The weak fundamentals continue to put pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - For hot-rolled coil, both the supply and demand sides have weakened. The production of plate steel mills has weakened, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil has decreased by 85,000 tons month-on-month, reaching a high and then falling back. However, the inventory has continued to rise at a high level, and the supply pressure has been alleviated to a limited extent, which continues to suppress the steel price trend. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 97,400 tons month-on-month, significantly lower than the same period level. Moreover, the contradictions in the downstream cold-rolled market have not been resolved, and the steel export demand has been disturbed by the Middle East conflict. The demand toughness of hot-rolled coil will weaken. Currently, under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand toughness is weakening. Under the situation of both supply and demand decline, the contradictions of hot-rolled coil continue to accumulate, and the price continues to be under pressure. Under the dominance of the weak reality logic, it is expected that hot-rolled coil will still maintain an oscillating bottom-finding trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [40]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand pattern has changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to recover. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills increased again last week, and steel mills may replenish their inventories after the Spring Festival, so the short-term demand for iron ore has improved. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the incremental space is limited, so the positive effect remains to be observed. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners remain at a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore supply, the supply of iron ore is increasing. Currently, the demand for iron ore has improved marginally, providing support for ore prices, but the sustainability is questionable. Moreover, the supply has rebounded again, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [41].