3月资产配置月报：扰动下的均衡配置-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic macro - environment in China is generally favorable, serving as the core support for risk assets in Q1. Overseas, the focus is on the Walsh trade, US tariff developments, and Middle East geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to moderately increase risk appetite and enhance offensive positioning within a balanced framework [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 February Review of Major Assets - Global major asset classes in February shifted towards "structural divergence". In the equity market, A - shares outperformed overall with style differences, mid - cap and small - to - mid cap segments led, while large - cap indices lagged. Hong Kong stocks were weak, tech sector retreats were notable. Developed markets in overseas equities diverged, emerging markets performed better. In the bond market, rate - sensitive assets were stable. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar strengthened, pressuring non - dollar currencies. In the commodity market, it was overall weak but with structural features [14][15][18]. 3.2 Market Focus: The Unfolding of the "Walsh Trade" - The market's perception of Kevin Walsh's trading legacy has evolved. The "Walsh Trade" was initially characterized by a bull flattening of the yield curve. The key contention is the feasibility of "rate cuts + QT". If QT triggers a liquidity crisis, it may invalidate Walsh's policy framework. His policy mix is more supportive of growth - oriented equities but may pressure long - dated bonds [22][24][25]. 3.3 Macro Environment Outlook 3.3.1 Overseas Macro - Global manufacturing PMI edged up in January to 50.9. US macro data in January showed signs of a "Goldilocks" scenario with inflation softening, unemployment rate declining, and employment data improving. Q4 GDP missed expectations but the effects of rate cuts may be materializing. Tariff developments added market uncertainty, and the legal effect of a court decision on tariffs may take effect from mid - March to early April [26][30][33]. 3.3.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic outlook will remain generally supportive in Q1, with favorable investment environment for risk assets. Policy expectations for a strong start to the 15th Five - Year Plan and anticipated inflation rebound are the core themes, and economic structural transformation and upgrading are long - term drivers [36]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Assets 3.4.1 Stock Index - In March, the domestic equity market is likely to continue its volatile yet upward movement. Policy acceleration, recovering inflation, and economic structural transformation are the driving factors. It is recommended to overweight IC [39]. 3.4.2 Commodities - Precious Metals: In March, geopolitical trading and tariff adjustments will drive the market. Precious metals may trend higher with gold receiving stronger impetus from geopolitical factors [44]. - Non - Ferrous Metals: Geopolitical factors may support non - ferrous metals. Prices may be volatile but biased higher. Copper, aluminum, and tin may see price centers shift upward [50]. - Ferrous Metals: In March, there will be a tug - of - war between inventory trends and policy expectations. Ferrous metals are expected to trade in wide ranges, and iron ore faces significant downside pressure [54]. - Energy & Chemicals: Oil prices will enter a validation phase for geopolitical supply disruption concerns. Chemical products have limited downside and merit attention [59]. 3.4.3 Bonds - In March, short - duration bonds are likely to outperform medium - to long - duration bonds, and overall asset payoff is modest. Future rate - cut space appears limited [64]. 3.5 Strategic Asset Allocation Recommendations - In March, moderately increase risk appetite and adopt a more aggressive posture on a balanced allocation framework. Overweight mid - cap style in domestic equity indices (focus on IC), have a neutral stance on government bonds with a standard long position in the short end (focus on TS), overweight non - ferrous metals, have a standard long in the chemical chain, and a standard short in ferrous metals. Overweight gold futures and have a standard position in silver futures [68][69][70].