螺纹热卷日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, steel prices declined slightly, with rebar performing stronger than hot-rolled coils. The overall spot steel trading volume was generally weak, with weak rigid demand and stable spot prices. This week, the data from Steel Union showed a slight increase in the production of the five major steel products, with an increase in rebar production and a shift to increased production of hot-rolled coils. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, with rebar inventory accumulating faster and shifting from mill inventory to social inventory. This week, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non-real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year, and the other targets remaining the same as in 2025. Since capital expenditure in the first quarter may fall short of expectations, the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the height of pig iron production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recently, overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has driven up the prices of black metals. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. However, after the Two Sessions, steel prices may still return to the fundamentals, and there is still pressure on steel prices. In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the pig iron production situation, downstream demand performance, overseas geopolitical frictions, and the results of the Two Sessions [6]. - Unilateral trading: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - Futures: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 4 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC05 - RB05 decreasing by 7 yuan/ton, and RB01 - RB05 decreasing by 3 yuan/ton. The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Spot: The prices of rebar in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The basis of different contracts in different regions also varied, with the cheapest delivery product having a 05 basis of 65 yuan/ton, a 10 basis of 36 yuan/ton, and a 01 basis of 8 yuan/ton. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions decreased to varying degrees [2]. 3.1.2 Hot-rolled Coils - Futures: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts decreased by 3 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 decreasing by 2 yuan/ton, and HC10 - HC01 increasing by 3 yuan/ton. The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 17 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and 13 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Spot: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The basis of different contracts in different regions also varied, with the cheapest delivery product having a 05 basis of 21 yuan/ton, a 10 basis of 0 yuan/ton, and a 01 basis of -18 yuan/ton. The regional price differences changed to some extent, and the spot profits in different regions decreased to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3160 yuan, that of Beijing Jingye rebar was 3100 yuan, that of Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan, and that of Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3140 yuan [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Important Information: In 2026, China plans to set the deficit ratio at around 4%, the target for the increase in the consumer price index at around 2%, issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds, and 4.4 trillion yuan of local special bonds. The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5 - 5%. The government work report emphasizes strengthening anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition, and regulating "involutionary" competition [8][9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends, basis, spreads, and disk profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils, as well as the cash profits of different steel products and the cost of electric furnaces in different regions [10][13][15][17][21][24][27][30][32][33][35][36][38][40][42][46][48][50][52][55].