螺纹日报：窄幅震荡-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the rebar market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The demand side of rebar has recovered to some extent, but the incremental space is limited, which restricts the upside. The short - term production restriction policy provides certain support. Future attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed, supply - side policy implementation, and demand recovery [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the rebar main contract had a decrease of 2236 lots in open interest, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, reaching 806140 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3070 in the short - term, but there was still pressure near the 30 - day moving average of 3097 and the 60 - day moving average of 3112. It slightly rushed up and then fell back to digest the meeting expectations, showing a narrow - range volatile consolidation overall [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3190 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 115 yuan/ton to the spot [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation - Supply side: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82100 tons compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery in the steel mills' production enthusiasm [3]. - Demand side: In the week of March 5, 2026, the current apparent demand was 982300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 646800 tons (+192.79%), mainly driven by the resumption of work after the Spring Festival [3]. - Inventory side: The social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 699900 tons (+12.33%), with a significant inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50900 tons (+2.19%), with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 750800 tons (+9.38%), and the overall inventory pressure increased significantly [3]. - Cost and profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The profitability rate of steel mills remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the coking coal imports continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures to stabilize growth such as "issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan", "arranging local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy". The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support increased, and the sentiment was supported in the short - term [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and repair of cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory removal speed, and bearish capital position structure [5].