震荡运行：PP日报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change. On March 5, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard-grade drawn wire dropping to around 27.5%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and have been continuously decreasing after the holiday. Currently, petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the crude oil price has risen significantly, which has a significant boost to PP. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly increased. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories has increased, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change. On March 5, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire dropping to around 27.5%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and have been continuously decreasing after the holiday. Currently, petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which has a significant boost to PP. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly increased. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories has increased, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 7,282 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,719 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 7,458 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.57%. The position increased by 11,650 lots to 476,193 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. The price of drawn wire was reported at 7,140 - 7,830 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 5, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire dropping to around 27.5% [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change [1][4] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 825,000 tons, which was 65,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $83 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10 per ton to $855 per ton [4]