橡胶甲醇原油：强弱继续分化能化涨跌互现

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the momentum to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile and weakening trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a volatile and stable trend. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol has continued to rise, but it lacks fundamental support. It is expected that the methanol futures price may have limited upward momentum in the future [7]. - Crude Oil: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract showed a volatile upward trend. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil exports are stagnant, supply is in short - supply, and the crude oil premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a volatile and strengthening trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 tons or 1.82%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 6.52%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.89%. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses decreased. As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, both showing significant month - on - month increases. The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in February 2026 was 56.2%. In February 2026, the sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 7.5 tons, and the cumulative sales from January to February increased by about 17% year - on - year [9][10]. - Methanol: As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 87.41%, with a slight week - on - week increase. The weekly average methanol output was 207.32 tons, also showing an increase. The operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde and acetic acid changed to varying degrees. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 97.53 tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 55.24 tons, both showing week - on - week increases [11][12][13]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 407, a week - on - week decrease. The US crude oil daily output was 1.3696 billion barrels, slightly down week - on - week. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly week - on - week. The refinery operating rate was 89.2%. The non - commercial net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased significantly week - on - week [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the futures main contract price was 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton. - The spot price of methanol was 2,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 2,538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The spot price of crude oil was 576.2 yuan/barrel, an increase of 20 yuan/barrel, and the futures main contract price was 703.6 yuan/barrel, an increase of 62.5 yuan/barrel [17]. 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][19][23][25]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46][48][50][53].