PVC日报：震荡运行-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a pattern of weak current situation but strong expectations. It is expected to oscillate in a relatively strong manner. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the Spring Festival [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region continued to drop by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month-on-month basis, remaining at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average operating rate of PVC downstream industries rebounded by 17.11 percentage points to 17.11%, but was 6.34 percentage points lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, downstream industries have not fully resumed production. Export orders increased slightly after the festival, but most export enterprises have completed their March pre-sales. With the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1st, PVC export orders are expected to be low in March. Additionally, India has launched an anti-subsidy tax investigation, leading to a decline in PVC export expectations. Social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise last week, remaining at a relatively high level with significant inventory pressure. In 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased on a month-on-month basis, and the housing market was sluggish during the Spring Festival. The real estate market needs more time to improve. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current output reduction is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in position and oscillated. The lowest price was 4,927 yuan/ton, the highest was 5,099 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 5,016 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.93%. The position increased by 12,576 lots to 1,078,460 lots [2] - On March 5th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,870 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2605 contract futures was 5,016 yuan/ton. The current basis was -146 yuan/ton, strengthening by 49 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month-on-month basis, remaining at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, were put into operation in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. From January to December, the commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. From January to December, the new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; among them, the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. From January to December, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. From January to December, the housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%; among them, the residential completion area was 428.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. The overall real estate market needs more time to improve. As of the week of February 22nd, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 92.37% on a month-on-month basis. The housing market was sluggish during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to whether post-festival real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of February 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.71% to 1.353 million tons on a month-on-month basis, 58.02% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise this week, remaining at a relatively high level (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]