甲醇日报：地缘局势下，回落之后继续强势对待-20260305

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that after the conflict between the US and Iran and the initial high - level drop of methanol prices following Iran's announcement of not closing the Strait of Hormuz, methanol remains in a pattern where it is more likely to rise than fall. It should be treated with a strong - market mindset, and attention should be paid to opportunities after price drops. Technically, the filling of the previous gap should be monitored, and the external situation should be closely tracked [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of February 25, 2026, the total methanol port inventory in China was 144.67 million tons, an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased slightly by 0.05 million tons, while that in South China increased by 1.50 million tons. The port inventory accumulated slightly after the holiday, due to limited提货 during the holiday and normal unloading speed of foreign vessels [1]. - In Jiangsu, some warehouses along the Yangtze River had vessel - supported提货, but truck - transport提货 was weak, leading to inventory accumulation under foreign - vessel supply; in Zhejiang, the downstream was stable, and less vessel unloading led to a decline in inventory. In South China this week, the inventory increased slightly. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic cargoes arrived during the period, and the提货 volume in mainstream warehouses decreased significantly due to the holiday, resulting in inventory accumulation. In Fujian, there was no cargo replenishment, the downstream start - up rate decreased, the consumption speed slowed down, and the提货 was normal, leading to a slight decrease in inventory [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - On the morning of the 5th local time, Amir Heydari, the deputy commander of Iran's Khatam al - Anbiya Central Command, stated that Iran has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz and is handling vessels passing through the strait according to international rules and established agreements [2]. - The draft of the 14th Five - Year Plan proposes to implement the new energy security strategy, accelerate the construction of a clean, low - carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, and build an energy - strong country. It also promotes the reliable and ordered replacement of fossil energy with non - fossil energy, advocates the combination of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear energy, and implements a ten - year doubling action for non - fossil energy [2]. - According to Iranian state media, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said that Iran will target US and UK vessels flying any flag and transporting goods for Israel in the Persian Gulf [2]. - Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng said to consolidate and deepen the previous "anti - involution" achievements and strengthen production - capacity monitoring, early - warning, and comprehensive governance [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis After the US - Iran conflict and the potential energy crisis caused by the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, methanol prices dropped from a high level. Currently, methanol is still in an upward - prone pattern, and opportunities after price drops should be focused on. Technically, the filling of the previous gap should be monitored, and the external situation should be closely tracked [3].