沥青日报：低开后震荡上行-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the rise of crude oil price in the near future, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle - East situation [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%) [1] - Demand side: After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries resumed work slowly, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week. The national shipment volume decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low level [1] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong region increased, but the basis is at a relatively low level. The Venezuelan heavy - crude oil flow to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. There are concerns about raw material shortages in domestic refineries in March [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.11% to 3,659 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,563 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,758 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 13,098 to 83,497 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region rose to 3,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to - 109 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some major refineries in the South produce intermittently. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The national highway construction investment from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025, but it is still negative. The actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to December 2025 increased by - 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 increased by - 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Demand side: As of the week of February 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries resumed work slowly, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]